LOAR HOLDINGS INC (LOAR)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
$66.05-2.44%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Loar Holdings raised its 2026 revenue guidance to about $650 million. The company aims to keep its profit margin near 40%. Analysts expect earnings per share around $1.30 for 2026. Recent acquisitions and credit agreements support growth plans.
Earnings guidance for 2026 was lowered to $0.54-$0.59 per share. The company is loss-making with a high price-to-earnings ratio near 97. Market headwinds in aerospace and defense could hurt growth. Credit agreements increase financial risk.
The stock price is about 13% above our fair value near $69. Analysts expect 22% revenue growth, which the market has priced in. Our fair value is 14% below the Street median, reflecting cautious optimism.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 35% in FY26
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.54 in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment is characterized as a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, though confidence has shifted to medium due to sector headwinds.
The valuation is considered expensive compared to peers, with a premium of 2.33. The market appears to have priced in a justified level of performance, but there is a notable expectations gap.
Management is focused on increasing revenue and maintaining margins, showing strong organic growth. However, there is mixed delivery on adjusted EBITDA margins and diluted EPS guidance, indicating some uncertainty in future performance.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable environment for LOAR. Conversely, if they start to miss expectations, it could negatively impact LOAR's performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Management aims to increase diluted earnings per share for 2026, adjusting guidance upward reflecting operational performance.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Diluted EPS increased from $0.12 in 2026-Q1 to $0.18 in 2026-Q2. Guidance for full-year 2026 EPS was revised upward from $0.54-$0.59 in 2026-Q1 to $0.57-$0.62 in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows improvement but prior quarters included downward revisions, indicating mixed delivery.
“Diluted Earnings per share between $0.57 and $0.62, up from between $0.54 and $0.59.”
“Diluted Earnings per share between $0.54 and $0.59, down from between $0.60 and $0.65.”
“Diluted Earnings per share between $0.60 and $0.65, down from between $0.82 and $0.88.”
Breaks if: revenue falls below $645 million in FY26
Management aims to grow net sales for 2026, revising guidance upward multiple times reflecting strong demand and acquisitions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $114.7 million in 2025-Q1 to $171.6 million in 2026-Q2 (+57%). Management revised 2026 full-year revenue guidance upward from $640-$650 million in 2025-Q4 to $665-$675 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering with strong organic growth and acquisitions contributing.
“Our outlook for the full year 2026 includes net sales between $665 million and $675 million, up from between $645 million and $655 million.”
“We have increased our guidance for 2026 to between $645 million and $655 million, up from between $640 million and $650 million.”
“We revised our outlook for net sales upward to include the impact of the LMB Fans & Motors and Harper Engineering acquisitions.”
Overall, LOAR's fundamentals are strong, but the elevated risk from sector dynamics warrants close monitoring. Not investment advice.