LOAR HOLDINGS INC (LOAR)

NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-23

$61.57-5.01%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge LOAR HOLDINGS INC’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	174.61M
EPS	—	0.329
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	671.76M
EPS	—	1.369
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	746.86M
EPS	—	1.614

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain adjusted EBITDA margin near 40% in 2026	The company aims to keep its profit margin near 40%.	Intact	adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 35% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA Margin improved from 37.6% in 2026-Q1 to 40.5% in 2026-Q2, maintaining around 40% as targeted. The margin increase reflects execution of strategic value drivers and accretive sales, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Diluted EPS between $0.54 and $0.59 in 2026	A primary condition in LOAR HOLDINGS INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.54 per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.54 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.18 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.54 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.18 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a6d1f7dd-0767-4f85-a243-55304b7c970f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Diluted EPS increased from $0.12 in 2026-Q1 to $0.18 in 2026-Q2. Guidance for full-year 2026 EPS was revised upward from $0.54-$0.59 in 2026-Q1 to $0.57-$0.62 in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows improvement but prior quarters included downward revisions, indicating mixed delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches at least $645 million in 2026	A primary condition in LOAR HOLDINGS INC's published investment case. The stated target is >= $645 million.	Intact	revenue falls below $645 million in FY26	Revenue: $171.579M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $645 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026171,579,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: a6d1f7dd-0767-4f85-a243-55304b7c970f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $114.7 million in 2025-Q1 to $171.6 million in 2026-Q2 (+57%). Management revised 2026 full-year revenue guidance upward from $640-$650 million in 2025-Q4 to $665-$675 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory is delivering with strong organic growth and acquisitions contributing. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

Unavailable → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.72B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$722,707,130	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$722,707,130	4 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$722,707,130	4 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$722,707,130	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$722,707,130	4 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$722,707,130	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$722,707,130	4 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$722,707,130	4 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$722,707,130	4 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$722,707,130	4 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$722,707,130	4 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$722,707,130	4 / 5
2026-08-12	$1.60	$743,017,650	5 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	0
2026-06-01	5	0
2026-07-01	5	1
2026-08-01	4	1
2026-09-01	4	1
2026-10-01	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Morgan StanleyOct 16 · prior Jul 15

$82.00 → $72.00-12.2%

$0$45.10$90.20

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain adjusted EBITDA margin near 40% in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Diluted EPS between $0.54 and $0.59 in 2026Diluted EPS: $0.18 per share
Revenue reaches at least $645 million in 2026Revenue: $171.579M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

LOAR HOLDINGS INC outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

LOAR is a growth-oriented industrial business with recent strong financial performance and robust earnings quality. Its long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased to medium and the risk level is elevated.

What's priced into LOAR HOLDINGS INC

LOAR is expensive versus peers, with a 2.17 premium, and the valuation divergence is tied to re-rating. The priced-in label is justified and fragility is low, but the expectations gap is negative at -0.35; model confidence is also low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management has raised 2026 revenue guidance and is delivering strong growth, with revenue rising from $114.7 million in 2025-Q1 to $171.6 million in 2026-Q2. Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 40.5% in 2026-Q2, while diluted EPS and its 2026 guidance also improved, though margin delivery is mixed and prior EPS guidance had been cut. Near-term miss risk is described as low, but earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down, while the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What LOAR HOLDINGS INC hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on continued growth and management maintaining credibility after raising guidance. A reversal and guidance cut would weaken confidence, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from industrial bellwethers such as SPCX, GE, and RTX could support the sector backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.