Reading LFVN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LFVN free→Reading LFVN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LFVN free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Management's recent track record is neutral, and risk is high, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as the company is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like KHC, GIS, and HRL. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.61. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.61 LFVN trades at 11× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $7.93 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 17% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.13x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated fragile grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.19 → $0.13 (-33.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$280.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$594.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,172.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 11.7 points (from 50.8 to 62.5).
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
As of June 15, 2026, valuation rose. The valuation label changed from "full" to "fair.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for Lifevantage. This would help improve its fragile quality status.
Confirms:Consumer Staples sector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 4% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LFVN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and the exhibit hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LFVN Lifevantage Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | fair | high |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims for fiscal 2026 revenue to be close to the lower end of the previously issued guidance range.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue declined from $551.14M in 2025-Q4 to $43.716M in 2026-Q3, indicating a significant drop. The trajectory shows limited progress towards achieving the lower end of the guidance range.
“The Company anticipates fiscal 2026 revenue to be close to the lower end of our previously issued guidance range.”
“The Company anticipates fiscal 2026 revenue in the range of $185 million to $200 million.”
“The Company is reiterating its previously issued guidance of revenue in the range of $225 million to $240 million.”
The company aims to maintain adjusted EBITDA within the guidance range of $15 million to $19 million for fiscal 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has consistently aimed for adjusted EBITDA within the $15M to $19M range. However, no specific EBITDA figures are provided in the financials to assess progress, indicating limited visibility on delivery.
“The Company anticipates adjusted EBITDA of $15 million to $19 million.”
The company is undergoing a CEO transition with the retirement of Steven R. Fife.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The CEO transition is underway with Steven R. Fife's retirement effective April 30, 2026. This transition is neutral in impact, with no reported disagreements affecting the company's operations.
“Steven R. Fife notified the Board of his decision to retire as President and CEO.”
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. CEO Retirement On February 4, 2026, LifeVantage Corporation (the “Company”) announced that Steven R. Fife notified the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of his decision to retire as President and Chief Executive Officer and from the Board. Mr. Fife’s retirement date has now been set to take effect on April 30, 2026, which will be the effective date…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 30, 2026, Steven R. Fife notified the Company's board of directors (the “Board”) of his decision to retire as President and Chief Executive Officer and from the Board, with such resignation expected to be effective in April 2026. Mr. Fife’s decision to retire is not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating t…
and the exhibit hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On December 3, 2025, Julie Boyster, the Chief Marketing Officer of LifeVantage Corporation (the “Company”), notified the Company of her intention to resign from such role, effective December 12, 2025, to pursue other business opportunities. Also on December 3, 2025, Todd Thompson, the Chief Information and Innovation Officer of the Company, notifie…
“adjusted EBITDA of $23 million to $26 million”
“adjusted EBITDA of $23 million to $26 million”
“Steven R. Fife's decision to retire is not the result of any disagreement with the Company.”