Reading LASR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LASR free→Reading LASR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LASR free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been fairly steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, LASR is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 155% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $69.63. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $70 LASR trades at 13× p/s, in line with its 12× p/s peer median. Our $27 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $75–$100. Not investment advice.
(median $80.50) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-21
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 154% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 27%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted -2.11x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.07 → $0.14 (+95.4% / 30d). 9 raised, 0 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 89% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.2% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$390.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$698.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,619.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will show if nLight's losses are improving or worsening. Investors will focus on revenue and profit trends.
Confirms:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Earnings report shows revenue decline worse than -5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LASR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LASR nLight, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | — | — | moderate |
AVGO Broadcom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MU Micron Technology | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
nLIGHT aims to improve its overall gross margin to be in the range of 29% to 33% for the quarter ending June 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross profit increased from $13.8M in 2025-Q1 to $26.5M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards the gross margin target. The trajectory shows delivering improvement in gross margin.
“nLIGHT expects overall gross margin to be in the range of 29% to 33%.”
“nLIGHT expects overall gross margin to be in the range of 27% to 32%.”
“nLIGHT expects overall gross margin to be in the range of 27% to 32%.”
nLIGHT has set a revenue target range of $75 million to $81 million for the quarter ending June 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue increased from $51.7M in 2025-Q1 to $80.2M in 2026-Q1, showing strong growth towards the $75M-$81M target for Q2 2026. The trajectory indicates delivering on revenue growth.
“nLIGHT expects revenues to be in the range of $75 million to $81 million.”
nLIGHT aims to achieve Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $8 million to $12 million for the quarter ending June 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. While specific EBITDA figures are not provided, the consistent guidance range suggests a focus on improving profitability. The trajectory shows recurring focus with limited substantive delivery so far.
“nLIGHT expects Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $8 million to $12 million.”
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth falls, it could hurt nLight's performance. The sector is currently in a growth phase.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median for the last quarter.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median for the last quarter.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Other Events. On February 3, 2026, nLIGHT, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, William Blair & Company, LLC and Raymond James & Associates, Inc. as representatives of the several underwriters named in Schedule I thereto (collectively, the “Underwriters”), relating to an underwritten public offering of 3,977,273 shares of common stock of the Company (the “Un…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 13, 2026, nLIGHT, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing preliminary results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the press release issued in connection with the announcement is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company’s actual results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025 are still being finalized; therefore, s…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 5, 2026, the board of directors (the “Board”) of nLIGHT, Inc. (the “Company”), upon recommendation from the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee of the Board, appointed Gerald M. Haines II as a Class I director, with a term expiring at the Company’s 2028 annual meeting of stockholders. The Board also has appointed Mr. Haines as…
“nLIGHT expects revenues to be in the range of $70 million to $76 million.”
“For the fourth quarter of 2025, nLIGHT expects revenues to be in the range of $72 million to $78 million.”
“nLIGHT expects Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $5 million to $10 million.”
“nLIGHT expects Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $6 million to $11 million.”