nLight, Inc. (LASR)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$36.34+0.66%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge nLight, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.63 → 0.64 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$63M–$73M	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	74.93M
EPS	—	0.092
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	305.88M
EPS	—	0.498
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	348.44M
EPS	—	0.637

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve Adjusted EBITDA of $8M-$12M for Q2 2026	The company targets $75M-$81M revenue and $8M-$12M adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $8M in Q2 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Improve gross margin to 29%-33% for Q2 2026	Gross margin is improving toward 29%-33%, with gross profit rising to $26.5M in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 29% in Q2 2026	Gross margin: 31.15% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 29%-33% gross margin for Q2 2026. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 7, 202631.147462 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d4bd6454-20d3-4261-a875-77a635ac63b0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Management confidence and insider ownership	A supporting condition in nLight, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No large insider stock sales signaling loss of confidence.	Under Pressure	Further large CEO or insider stock sales occur	CEO sold $6.29M (May) and $1.9M (Jun) vs no large sales target News confirms CEO Scott Keeney sold $6.29M and $1.9M in company stock during May and June 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue of $75M-$81M for Q2 2026	A primary condition in nLight, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $75M revenue for Q2 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $75M in Q2 2026	Revenue: $82.591M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $75M revenue for Q2 2026. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 7, 202682,591,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d4bd6454-20d3-4261-a875-77a635ac63b0. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.64

$0.68 → $0.64 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.35B

$0.35B → $0.35B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.68	$347,402,440	9 / 9
2026-07-25	$0.68	$347,402,444	5 / 7
2026-07-26	$0.68	$347,402,440	9 / 9
2026-07-27	$0.68	$347,402,440	9 / 9
2026-07-28	$0.68	$347,402,440	9 / 9
2026-07-29	$0.68	$347,402,444	6 / 7
2026-07-30	$0.68	$347,402,440	9 / 9
2026-07-31	$0.68	$347,402,440	9 / 9
2026-08-01	$0.68	$347,402,444	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$0.68	$347,402,440	9 / 9
2026-08-03	$0.68	$347,402,440	9 / 9
2026-08-04	$0.68	$347,402,440	9 / 9
2026-08-05	$0.68	$347,402,440	9 / 9
2026-08-06	$0.68	$347,402,444	6 / 7
2026-08-07	$0.68	$347,402,444	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$0.67	$345,446,890	9 / 9
2026-08-09	$0.67	$345,446,890	9 / 9
2026-08-10	$0.68	$347,402,444	6 / 7
2026-08-12	$0.63	$347,070,000	9 / 9
2026-08-13	$0.63	$347,070,000	9 / 9
2026-08-14	$0.68	$347,402,444	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$0.68	$347,402,444	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$0.68	$347,402,444	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$0.68	$347,402,444	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$0.68	$347,402,444	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$0.68	$347,402,444	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$0.63	$347,070,000	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$0.64	$348,436,667	5 / 7
2026-10-09	$0.64	$348,436,667	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$0.64	$348,436,667	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$0.64	$348,436,667	5 / 7
2026-10-12	$0.64	$348,436,667	5 / 7
2026-10-13	$0.64	$348,436,667	5 / 7
2026-10-14	$0.64	$348,436,667	5 / 7
2026-10-15	$0.64	$348,436,667	5 / 7
2026-10-16	$0.64	$348,436,667	5 / 7
2026-10-17	$0.64	$348,436,667	5 / 7
2026-10-18	$0.64	$348,436,667	5 / 7
2026-10-19	$0.64	$348,436,667	5 / 7
2026-10-20	$0.64	$348,436,667	5 / 7
2026-10-21	$0.64	$348,439,622	5 / 7
2026-10-22	$0.64	$348,439,622	5 / 7
2026-10-23	$0.64	$348,439,622	5 / 7
2026-10-24	$0.64	$348,439,622	5 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	1
2026-06-01	8	1
2026-07-01	8	1
2026-08-01	8	1
2026-09-01	8	1
2026-10-01	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Northcoast ResearchOct 7

$75.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$41.25$82.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve Adjusted EBITDA of $8M-$12M for Q2 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Improve gross margin to 29%-33% for Q2 2026Gross margin: 31.15%
Management confidence and insider ownershipPublished status: Under Pressure
Achieve revenue of $75M-$81M for Q2 2026Revenue: $82.591M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-60.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

nLight, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

LASR is a high-risk growth business, not yet a proven durable compounder, because it remains loss-making. Its multi-year view is on watch: revenue and gross margin priorities are on track, while progress toward positive adjusted EBITDA is mixed.

What's priced into nLight, Inc.

The evidence describes LASR as cheap versus peers, with an expectations gap of -0.48, but confidence in that valuation read is low. Pricing is tagged as justified, and no fragility gates are active, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s stated focus on revenue growth and gross margin has support from recent results, though third-quarter guidance points to a lower gross-margin range and adjusted EBITDA range than the latest quarter. The recent signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed, and financial performance remains below the industry cohort; despite a low stated miss risk, the history of a deep miss and recent peer misses remain risks.

What nLight, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on sustaining revenue growth, keeping gross margins within management’s targeted range, and making adjusted EBITDA progress more consistent. Near term, guidance cuts would be a negative; rate cuts or continued strong results and guidance from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop.