Reading KRMN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KRMN free→Reading KRMN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KRMN free→NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, and management's track record is volatile. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, KRMN is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 266% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $51.69. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $48, KRMN's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 13× p/s (3.6× the 3× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $14 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $100–$114. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 239% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.28x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.16 → $0.13 (-19.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 8 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 91% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 72.1% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$359.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$694.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,021.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Raising revenue guidance shows strong confidence in growth. This could boost investor sentiment.
Confirms:The company raises its revenue guidance for 2026. This is above current estimates.
Disproves:The company maintains or lowers its revenue guidance for 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KRMN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant. On June 10, 2026, the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors (the “Audit Committee”) of Karman Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) approved the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (“PwC”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026. On June 10, 2026, the Audit Committee of the Company also approved the dismissal of Baker Tilly US, LLP (“Baker Tilly”) as the Company’s independent r…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$100.00 – $114.00 (median $100.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-02
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KRMN Karman Holdings Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 15 of 100 | expensive | high |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
18 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company has raised its revenue expectations for fiscal year 2026 to between $720 million and $735 million.
The company has raised its adjusted EBITDA expectations for fiscal year 2026 to between $208.5 million and $219.5 million.
The company expects recent acquisitions to be immediately accretive across major financial metrics in 2026.
Why it matters: Higher adjusted EBITDA guidance means better profits. This may bring in more investors.
Confirms:The company raises its adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026. This is in the Q2 report.
Disproves:The company does not change its adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in auditors can change how financial reports look. This may affect investor trust.
Confirms one read:The new auditor, PwC, gives a good report on Karman's finances.
Confirms the other:PwC is worried about Karman's money reports and internal controls.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Underwriting Agreement On May 28, 2026, Karman Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with the persons named in Schedule II thereto (the “Selling Stockholders”) and Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and Evercore Group L.L.C., as the underwriters (the “Underwriters”), pursuant to which the Selling Stockholders agreed to sell 14,000,000 shares of common stock, par value $0.001 per share, of the…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026, Karman Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter fiscal year ended March 31 2026 (the “Press Release”) and issued earnings highlights for the first quarter fiscal year ended March 31 2026 (the “Earnings Highlights”). Copies of the Press Release and Earnings Highlights are attached as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K (t…
shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 12, 2026, Karman Holdings Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Anthony Koblinski, its current Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”) and a member of the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”), will retire from his role as CEO of the Company effective March 23, 2026. Mr. Koblinski will continue to serve as a member of the Board. Mr. Koblin…