Karman Holdings Inc (KRMN)

NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-23

$36.65+5.99%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Karman Holdings Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.96 → 0.95 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	214.15M
EPS	—	0.187
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	742.24M
EPS	—	0.585
EBITDA	$55Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	951.48M
EPS	—	0.954

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Acquisitions are accretive in 2026	A supporting condition in Karman Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Accretive acquisitions in FY26.	Intact	Acquisitions fail to add value or hurt earnings in FY26	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Adjusted EBITDA reaches about $214 million in 2026	Profit growth is supported by higher adjusted EBITDA guidance near $214 million.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $208 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $727 million in 2026	Karman Holdings raised 2026 revenue guidance to about $727 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $470 million in FY25 or fails to reach $720 million in FY26	Revenue: $182.063M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$727 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 2026182,063,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4baab774-631d-4384-9136-c047ff0ef34e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.95

$0.92 → $0.95 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.95B

$0.93B → $0.95B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.92	$932,132,958	7 / 7
2026-07-25	$0.93	$932,132,960	10 / 10
2026-07-26	$0.93	$932,132,960	10 / 10
2026-07-27	$0.92	$932,132,958	7 / 7
2026-07-28	$0.92	$932,132,958	7 / 7
2026-07-29	$0.92	$932,132,960	10 / 10
2026-07-30	$0.92	$932,132,960	10 / 10
2026-07-31	$0.92	$932,132,960	10 / 10
2026-08-01	$0.92	$932,132,958	7 / 7
2026-08-02	$0.92	$932,132,960	10 / 10
2026-08-03	$0.92	$932,132,960	10 / 10
2026-08-04	$0.92	$932,132,960	10 / 10
2026-08-05	$0.92	$932,132,960	10 / 10
2026-08-06	$0.92	$932,132,958	7 / 7
2026-08-07	$0.92	$932,132,958	7 / 7
2026-08-08	$0.92	$936,992,960	10 / 10
2026-08-09	$0.92	$932,132,958	7 / 7
2026-08-10	$0.92	$936,992,960	10 / 10
2026-08-12	$0.94	$936,754,220	10 / 10
2026-08-13	$0.94	$936,754,220	10 / 10
2026-08-14	$0.92	$932,132,958	7 / 7
2026-08-15	$0.92	$932,132,958	7 / 7
2026-08-16	$0.92	$932,132,958	7 / 7
2026-08-17	$0.92	$932,132,958	7 / 7
2026-08-18	$0.92	$932,132,958	7 / 7
2026-08-19	$0.92	$932,132,958	7 / 7
2026-08-20	$0.94	$937,871,223	7 / 7
2026-08-21	$0.94	$937,871,223	7 / 7
2026-08-22	$0.94	$937,871,223	7 / 7
2026-08-23	$0.94	$937,871,223	7 / 7
2026-08-24	$0.94	$937,871,223	7 / 7
2026-08-25	$0.94	$937,871,223	7 / 7
2026-08-26	$0.94	$937,871,223	7 / 7
2026-08-27	$0.94	$937,871,223	7 / 7
2026-08-28	$0.94	$937,871,223	7 / 7
2026-08-29	$0.94	$937,871,223	7 / 7
2026-08-30	$0.94	$937,871,223	7 / 7
2026-08-31	$0.94	$937,871,223	7 / 7
2026-09-01	$0.94	$937,871,223	7 / 7
2026-09-02	$0.94	$937,871,223	7 / 7
2026-09-03	$0.94	$937,871,223	7 / 7
2026-09-04	$0.95	$942,401,223	7 / 7
2026-09-05	$0.95	$942,401,223	7 / 7
2026-09-06	$0.95	$942,401,223	7 / 7
2026-09-07	$0.95	$942,401,223	7 / 7
2026-09-08	$0.95	$942,401,223	7 / 7
2026-09-09	$0.95	$942,401,223	7 / 7
2026-09-10	$0.95	$942,401,223	7 / 7
2026-09-11	$0.95	$942,401,223	7 / 7
2026-09-12	$0.95	$942,446,223	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$0.95	$942,446,223	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$0.95	$942,446,223	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$0.95	$942,446,223	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$0.96	$945,505,657	6 / 8
2026-09-17	$0.96	$945,509,785	7 / 8
2026-09-18	$0.96	$945,509,785	7 / 8
2026-09-19	$0.96	$945,509,785	7 / 8
2026-09-20	$0.96	$945,509,785	7 / 8
2026-09-21	$0.96	$945,509,785	7 / 8
2026-09-22	$0.96	$945,509,785	7 / 8
2026-09-23	$0.96	$945,509,785	7 / 8
2026-09-24	$0.96	$945,509,785	7 / 8
2026-09-25	$0.96	$945,509,785	7 / 8
2026-09-26	$0.96	$945,509,785	7 / 8
2026-09-27	$0.96	$945,509,785	7 / 8
2026-09-28	$0.96	$945,509,785	7 / 8
2026-09-29	$0.96	$949,855,239	7 / 8
2026-09-30	$0.96	$949,855,239	7 / 8
2026-10-01	$0.96	$949,855,239	7 / 8
2026-10-02	$0.96	$949,855,239	7 / 8
2026-10-03	$0.96	$949,851,112	7 / 8
2026-10-04	$0.96	$949,851,112	7 / 8
2026-10-05	$0.96	$949,851,112	7 / 8
2026-10-06	$0.96	$949,851,112	7 / 8
2026-10-07	$0.96	$949,851,112	7 / 8
2026-10-08	$0.96	$949,851,112	7 / 8
2026-10-09	$0.96	$949,851,112	7 / 8
2026-10-10	$0.95	$949,851,112	7 / 8
2026-10-11	$0.95	$949,851,112	7 / 8
2026-10-12	$0.95	$949,851,112	7 / 8
2026-10-13	$0.95	$949,851,112	7 / 8
2026-10-14	$0.95	$949,851,112	7 / 8
2026-10-15	$0.95	$949,851,112	7 / 8
2026-10-16	$0.95	$949,851,112	7 / 8
2026-10-17	$0.95	$949,851,112	7 / 8
2026-10-18	$0.95	$952,045,386	7 / 9
2026-10-19	$0.95	$952,045,386	7 / 9
2026-10-20	$0.95	$952,045,386	7 / 9
2026-10-21	$0.95	$952,045,386	7 / 9
2026-10-22	$0.95	$952,045,386	7 / 9
2026-10-23	$0.95	$951,480,356	7 / 9
2026-10-24	$0.95	$951,480,356	8 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	1
2026-06-01	10	1
2026-07-01	10	1
2026-08-01	10	1
2026-09-01	11	1
2026-10-01	14	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 23 · prior May 19

$114.00 → $59.00-48.2%

UBSOct 22

$40.00New observation · no comparable prior

MacquarieOct 16

$65.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysOct 8

$79.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$62.70$125.40

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Acquisitions are accretive in 2026Qualitative condition
Adjusted EBITDA reaches about $214 million in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue grows to about $727 million in 2026Revenue: $182.063M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-73.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Karman Holdings Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative growth investment with a focus on expanding revenue and EBITDA. The current thesis state remains intact, but confidence has shifted to medium due to recent volatility in management and execution quality.

What's priced into Karman Holdings Inc

The market currently prices KRMN at a premium compared to its peers, reflecting expectations of continued strong performance. However, this premium is not fully justified given the fragile earnings quality and volatile management.

What the fundamentals likely do

KRMN's fundamentals are likely to continue showing strong growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA, as management has consistently raised guidance. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings expectations, which could impact credibility.

What Karman Holdings Inc hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, KRMN could benefit from positive sector momentum, but any misses or lower guidance from them could negatively affect KRMN.