Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)
NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-10-29
NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put KALU beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Materials: fringe margins under pressure (0q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Recent financial performance slipped notably this past month, though still top-half.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 40% over the past year.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 46% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskKaiser Aluminum’s case rests on strong financial performance, cash-backed profits, and debt reduction. Revenue growth accelerated from 42% in Q1 to 53% in Q2, before the latest quarter missed. It trades at 9× P/E versus a 17× peer median, while expectations look modest versus our view. A 27% next-quarter miss probability and recent performance slippage put the thesis on watch. The multiple still needs to be earned despite the peer gap. Peer multiples imply a price about 20% above where it trades; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. KALU is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 6 analysts currently covering KALU (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for KALU in the last 4 months.
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Compare KALU with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KALU Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Materials (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put KALU next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Reduce debt and strengthen the balance sheet
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $116.28
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $116.28.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Projected free cash flow supports debt reduction, while strong EBITDA growth reinforces operating and revenue objectives.

Barclays' overweight rating supports revenue growth expectations.

Advances: Maintain dividend payout
Dividend declaration aligns with capital allocation objectives.

Moody's upgrade indicates strong financial health.

UBS upgrade reflects improving fundamentals.

New CEO could drive strategic initiatives forward.
New CEO appointment may enhance operational strategy.

Advances: Increase revenue growth
EBITDA growth forecast supports revenue growth objective.
