Reading KALU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KALU free→Reading KALU? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KALU free→NASDAQMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly approach. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, although KALU trades above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $183.10. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $183 KALU trades at 22× p/e, in line with its 20× p/e peer median. Our $185 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $137–$183. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 1% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.92x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=988).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.01 → $2.05 (+1.9% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$213.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$364.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,603.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
Valuation changed. It rose from "full" to "fair." Risk fell. The sector backdrop remained a headwind. Earnings quality is fragile. Recent financial performance is strong.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This growth aligns with management's raised full-year outlook and shows demand strength.
Confirms:Q2 Conversion Revenue increases between 10% and 15% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 Conversion Revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KALU yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 4, 2026, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (the “Company”) held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “2026 Annual Meeting”). At the 2026 Annual Meeting, the stockholders of the Company, upon recommendation of the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”), approved the amendment and restatement of the Kaiser Aluminum Corporation 2021 Equity an…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$137.00 – $183.00 (median $173.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-05
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Materials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KALU Kaiser Aluminum Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RS Reliance, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
AA Alcoa | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | full | elevated |
RGLD Royal Gold | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | full | moderate |
RPM RPM International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on improving revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Continue to maintain a consistent dividend payout to shareholders.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. Cutting it might mean problems ahead.
Confirms one read:Quarterly dividend payout remains at $0.77 per share.
Confirms the other:Quarterly dividend payout is reduced from $0.77 per share.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows the company values its shareholders. This is a positive sign.
Confirms:The company pays the declared quarterly dividend of $0.77 on May 15, 2026.
Disproves:The company may stop or lower the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is managing costs well. This shows good efficiency.
Confirms:Q2 operating income is higher than last year's.
Disproves:Q2 operating income is lower than last year's.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows the company is strong. It also helps shareholders.
Confirms:Announcement of a dividend payout that meets or exceeds the previous level.
Disproves:A dividend cut or suspension is announced.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision can change interest rates. This may impact aluminum demand.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates or signals a hawkish stance.
Confirms the other:FOMC cuts interest rates or signals a dovish stance.
Why it matters: A lower leverage ratio means better financial health. It helps keep dividends steady.
Confirms:Net debt leverage ratio improves to below 2.8x.
Disproves:Net debt leverage ratio increases above 2.8x.
Why it matters: Improved aerospace demand can boost revenue and profitability for Kaiser. It is a critical end market for them.
Confirms:Aerospace demand shows growth in orders or production.
Disproves:Aerospace demand shows a drop in orders or production.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows that operations are improving. It also indicates strong demand.
Confirms:Q2 net income exceeds $63 million.
Disproves:Q2 net income falls below $63 million.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show a recovery in the materials sector.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported at greater than 0% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below -2% year over year.
Why it matters: The materials sector is in a mature phase. Signs of growth could impact KALU's performance.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth picks up to above 2% in June 2026.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth remains below 1% in June 2026.
The information in Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein…
Other Events. On April 13, 2026, Kaiser Aluminum Corporation announced that its board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend on its common stock of $0.77 per share. The dividend will be payable on May 15, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on April 24, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in the press release shall not be deemed to be "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of…
The information in Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein…
The information in Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, of this Current Report on Form 8-K shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless specifically identified therein as being incorporated therein…