Reading ICHR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ICHR free→Reading ICHR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ICHR free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductor Equipment & MaterialsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind, while compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 466% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $85.77. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $89 ICHR trades at 3× p/s, below its 7× p/s peer median. Our $15 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 478% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.16x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.22 → $0.29 (+33.3% / 30d). 6 raised, 0 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 70.8% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$362.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$813.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,080.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this revenue target shows strong demand and good operations.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue reported at $300 million or more.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue reported below $290 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ICHR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 18, 2026 , Ichor Holdings, Ltd. (the “Company”) entered into a sales agreement (the “Sales Agreement”) with TD Securities (USA) LLC, Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Needham & Company, LLC, and Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC (collectively, the “Agents”). Pursuant to the terms of the Sales Agreement, the Company may sell from time to time through the Agents, as sales agents, ordinary shares, with a par value of $0.0001 per share (the "…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductor Materials & Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ICHR Ichor Holdings, Ltd. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | high |
ASML ASML Holding N.V. | — | — | moderate |
LRCX Lam Research | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 70 of 100 | full | elevated |
AMAT Applied Materials | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | full | moderate |
KLAC KLA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on revenue growth driven by strategic capacity investments and technology transitions.
Enhance operating income through strategic and operational improvements.
Focus on improving cash flow from operations through better working capital management.
Why it matters: A drop in sector growth could impact Ichor's performance and outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth drops below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Stronger cash flow means better financial health. It also shows the company operates well.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations turns positive in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: New debt could affect cash flow and financial flexibility. Monitoring is key.
Confirms one read:The details show that issuing debt helps cash flow. It does not hurt liquidity.
Confirms the other:Details show debt issuance increases cash flow strain.
Why it matters: Information on debt issuance can explain financial plans and how money is used.
Confirms one read:Announcement of specific terms and use of proceeds from the debt issuance.
Confirms the other:No further details provided on the debt issuance within the next month.
Why it matters: Higher gross margins mean better cost control. This shows the company runs efficiently.
Confirms:Q2 2026 gross margin reported above 12.8%.
Disproves:Gross margin reported below 12.6%.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 4, 2026 , Ichor Holdings, Ltd. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing first quarter 2026 financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Form 8‑K as Exhibit 99.1. The Company is furnishing this information in connection with its previously announced webcast conference call to be held on May 4, 2026 , at 1:30 p.m. PT to discuss these results. The Company makes reference to certain non‑GAAP financial measures,…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 9, 2026 , Ichor Holdings, Ltd. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Form 8‑K as Exhibit 99.1. The Company is furnishing this information in connection with its previously announced webcast conference call to be held on February 9, 2026 , at 1:30 p.m. PT to discuss these results. The Company makes reference to certain n…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Credit Agreement On September 26, 2025, Icicle Acquisition Holding B.V., as holdings, entered into an Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with, Ichor Systems, Inc., Ichor Holdings, LLC, IMG Companies, LLC, IMG INTA, LLC, IMG Larkin, LLC, IMG, LLC, Applied Fusion, LLC, IMG Altair, LLC (together with the previously listed entities, as “Borrowers”), the other loan parties party thereto, Bank of America, N.A., as administrative…