Ichor Holdings, Ltd. (ICHR)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$37.94+0.21%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Ichor Holdings, Ltd.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.5%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.27 → 3.29 EPS · FY ending Dec 26, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-26
Revenue	—	364.31M
EPS	—	0.627
Annual ending 2026-12-26
Revenue	—	1.25B
EPS	—	1.576
Annual ending 2027-12-26
Revenue	—	1.66B
EPS	—	3.286

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash flow from operations improves to positive	A supporting condition in Ichor Holdings, Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.	Broken	Cash flow remains negative over next 4 quarters	Cash from operations: $-15.875M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 2026-15,875,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 26, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves to positive territory	Operating income improved from a loss of $13.8 million to a profit of $2.1 million in the same period.	Broken	Operating income falls below zero next quarter	Operating income: $7.195M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.1 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 4, 20267,195,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 26, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fc246cc1-385a-408d-810e-0313f4da1f49. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth to about $300 million next quarter	The company aims to grow revenue further to about $300 million next quarter and improve profits.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $256 million next quarter	Revenue: $294.784M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$300 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 4, 2026294,784,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 26, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: fc246cc1-385a-408d-810e-0313f4da1f49. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $240.3 million in 2025-Q2 to $294.8 million in 2026-Q2, a 23% year-over-year increase, with sequential growth of 15% from 2026-Q1 to 2026-Q2. Management's outlook for Q3 2026 anticipates continued sequential revenue growth, indicating delivery against this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-26 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.29

$2.70 → $3.29 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.66B

$1.44B → $1.66B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.70	$1,441,013,750	5 / 6
2026-07-25	$2.70	$1,441,013,750	5 / 6
2026-07-26	$2.69	$1,441,013,750	5 / 6
2026-07-27	$2.69	$1,441,013,750	5 / 6
2026-07-28	$2.69	$1,441,013,750	5 / 6
2026-07-29	$2.69	$1,441,013,750	5 / 6
2026-07-30	$2.69	$1,441,013,750	5 / 6
2026-07-31	$2.69	$1,441,013,750	5 / 6
2026-08-01	$2.69	$1,441,013,750	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$2.69	$1,441,013,750	5 / 6
2026-08-03	$2.69	$1,441,013,750	5 / 6
2026-08-04	$2.69	$1,441,013,750	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$2.69	$1,441,013,750	5 / 6
2026-08-06	$2.69	$1,441,013,750	5 / 6
2026-08-07	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-10	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-12	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-13	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-14	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$3.27	$1,629,614,125	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$3.27	$1,629,564,125	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$3.29	$1,634,368,111	6 / 6
2026-10-11	$3.29	$1,634,368,111	6 / 6
2026-10-12	$3.29	$1,634,368,111	6 / 6
2026-10-13	$3.29	$1,634,368,111	6 / 6
2026-10-14	$3.29	$1,634,368,111	6 / 6
2026-10-15	$3.29	$1,634,368,111	6 / 6
2026-10-16	$3.29	$1,634,368,111	6 / 6
2026-10-17	$3.29	$1,634,368,111	6 / 6
2026-10-18	$3.29	$1,634,368,111	6 / 6
2026-10-19	$3.29	$1,634,368,111	6 / 6
2026-10-20	$3.29	$1,634,368,111	6 / 6
2026-10-21	$3.29	$1,658,539,125	6 / 6
2026-10-22	$3.29	$1,658,539,125	6 / 6
2026-10-23	$3.29	$1,658,539,125	6 / 6
2026-10-24	$3.29	$1,658,539,125	6 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	1
2026-06-01	6	1
2026-07-01	6	1
2026-08-01	6	1
2026-09-01	6	1
2026-10-01	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 8

$82.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$45.10$90.20

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash flow from operations improves to positivePublished status: Broken
Operating income improves to positive territoryPublished status: Broken
Revenue growth to about $300 million next quarterPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-66.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Ichor Holdings, Ltd. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk recovery and growth thesis, not yet a durable compounder: the business is still loss-making, although recent results show progress in revenue and operating income. The multi-year view is on watch because recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort and company momentum has weakened.

What's priced into Ichor Holdings, Ltd.

ICHR is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and its expectations gap is negative. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to a clear mismatch between expectations and the business outlook.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and margin improvement have been management priorities, and recent results show progress, including higher year-over-year revenue and improved gross margin and operating income. Cash also increased, mainly from an equity offering, while the next-quarter outlook anticipates further sequential revenue growth. Risks remain high: a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, and the company has a history of a deep miss despite a low current miss-risk estimate.

What Ichor Holdings, Ltd. hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on sustained revenue growth translating into stronger margins and improved operating performance, rather than a return to weaker execution. Near term, guidance is a key swing factor; broader support could come from rate cuts or continued strong results and guidance from large technology companies.