Reading IBTA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IBTA free→Reading IBTA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track IBTA free→NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the capital stance is capital-friendly. Risk is high, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $32.34. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $31 IBTA trades at 20× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $33 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 4% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted -14.49x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.34 → $0.37 (+9.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 11% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$215.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$600.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,379.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: GDP growth impacts how much people spend. This is important for Ibotta's business.
Confirms:GDP growth reported above 2% for Q1 2026.
Disproves:GDP growth reported below 1% for Q1 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for IBTA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the information contained in Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
IBTA Ibotta, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | fair | high |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on stabilizing and growing revenue amidst recent declines.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue declined from $98.38M in 2024-Q4 to $82.48M in 2026-Q1. Despite management's focus on stabilization, the trajectory shows persistent declines, indicating limited progress.
“Revenue of $78 - $82 million, a year-over-year decline of 5% at the midpoint.”
“Revenue of $80 - $85 million, a year-over-year decrease of 16% at the midpoint.”
“Revenue of $79.0 - $84.0 million, a year-over-year decrease of 17% at the midpoint.”
Aim to improve adjusted EBITDA margins despite revenue challenges.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance has fluctuated, with a decrease from 14% in 2025-Q3 to 9% in 2026-Q1. The trajectory indicates challenges in achieving consistent margin improvement.
“Adjusted EBITDA of $6 - $8 million, representing a margin of 9% at the midpoint.”
Expand the share repurchase program by an additional $100 million.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The Board approved an increase of $100 million to the share repurchase program. This expansion reflects a strategic capital allocation decision, but its impact on financials is yet to be observed.
“Board approved an increase to the amount authorized under the Share Repurchase Program by up to an additional aggregate of $100 million.”
Why it matters: More claims can show economic problems. This may lower Ibotta's user engagement.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims fall below 200,000.
Why it matters: This report can show how well Ibotta's business is doing in the retail sector.
Confirms:Retail sales growth reported above 3% year over year.
Disproves:Retail sales growth reported below 0% year over year.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the information contained in Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Other Events Beginning in August 2024, the Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program, with authorization to purchase up to an aggregate of $300 million (the "Share Repurchase Program"). On March 11, 2026, the Board approved an increase to the amount authorized under the Share Repurchase Program by up to an additional aggregate of $100 million. The Share Repurchase Program has no expiration date. Repurchases under the Share Repurchase Program may be made from time to time through…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the information contained in Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Departure of Interim Chief Financial Officer On the Start Date, Valarie Sheppard, the Company’s Interim Chief Financial Officer ("Interim CFO"), will step down as the Interim CFO. Ms. Sheppard will continue to serve on the Company's Board of Directors and is expected to return to her previous roles as Lead Independent Director, Chair of the Audit Committee, and member of the Compensation Committee. A copy of the Company’s press release announcing Mr. Puckett's appointment is attached as Exhib…
“Adjusted EBITDA of $9 - $12 million, representing a margin of 13% at the midpoint.”
“Adjusted EBITDA of $9.5 - $13.5 million, representing a margin of 14% at the midpoint.”