Reading HWKN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HWKN free→Reading HWKN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HWKN free→NASDAQMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 94% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If HWKN cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $158.84. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $159 HWKN trades at 40× p/e — 2.0× the 20× p/e peer median, and above its own 27× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $83 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 92% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1093).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.66x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Materials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=1297).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.33 → $1.53 (+15.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$145.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$397.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,479.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong growth in this segment is key for overall revenue. It shows the success of acquisitions.
Confirms:Water Treatment segment revenue grows year over year by more than 20%.
Disproves:Water Treatment segment revenue growth is less than 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HWKN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 13, 2026, Hawkins, Inc. issued a press release announcing financial results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended March 29, 2026. A copy of the press release issued by the Registrant is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Materials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HWKN Hawkins, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RS Reliance, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
AA Alcoa | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | full | elevated |
RGLD Royal Gold | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | full | moderate |
RPM RPM International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to grow revenue and operating income across all business segments in fiscal 2027.
The company is undergoing a realignment of its reporting segments, as indicated by recent executive changes.
The company aims to maintain stable revenue growth across its business segments.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into financial performance and growth trends. It is a key event for investors.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows that revenue is growing. It also shows positive operating income.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows falling revenue. It also shows operating losses.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show growth in revenue. They will also show growth in operating income for different segments.
Confirms one read:Earnings results show revenue and operating income growth in all segments.
Confirms the other:Earnings results show drops in revenue or operating income.
Why it matters: Material costs affect profitability. If they rise too much, it could hurt Hawkins' margins.
Confirms:Gross profit margin is still over 23%. This is good, even with rising material costs.
Disproves:Gross profit margin falls below 20% due to rising material costs.
Why it matters: Changes in SG&A expenses can affect profits. It shows how well costs are managed.
Confirms:SG&A expenses increase by more than 10% year over year.
Disproves:SG&A expenses decrease or remain flat year over year.
Why it matters: Acquisitions are crucial for growth. Their success can drive revenue higher.
Confirms:Acquired companies contribute more than $15 million to revenue in Q1 2027.
Disproves:Acquired companies contribute less than $5 million to revenue in Q1 2027.
Why it matters: EPS growth shows how well a company is doing. It affects how investors feel.
Confirms:Fiscal 2027 EPS grows year over year by more than 5%.
Disproves:Fiscal 2027 EPS growth is flat or negative compared to fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Stable or improved revenue growth signals Hawkins is overcoming sector challenges. This is key for future performance.
Confirms:Q4 revenue growth turns positive year over year or stabilizes above -2%.
Disproves:Q4 revenue growth declines further year over year.
Why it matters: Stable revenue growth is key for Hawkins, Inc. to show consistent performance. Investors will look for signs that growth is not just a one-time event.
Confirms:Q1 2027 revenue growth shows an increase or remains stable compared to Q4 2026's $223.02M.
Disproves:Q1 2027 revenue declines compared to Q4 2026's $223.02M.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 13, 2026, Shirley A. Rozeboom, Vice President – Stauber, was determined to no longer be an “executive officer” of Hawkins, Inc. (the “Company”), effective as of the same date. This change in designation is part of a planned transition related to the realignment of reporting segments that was first effective for the fiscal year ended March 29…