Reading HOV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HOV free→Reading HOV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HOV free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. If HOV cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $119.80. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $120 HOV trades at 18× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median. Our $111 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 8% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 8.10x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-1.66 → $-0.56 (+66.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$178.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$542.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,973.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report gives insights into consumer spending trends. Strong retail sales could boost Hovnanian's outlook.
Confirms:Retail sales are up month over month. This shows stronger consumer demand.
Disproves:Retail sales are down month over month. This suggests weaker consumer spending.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HOV yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On May 21, 2026, Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its preliminary financial results for the fiscal second quarter ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the Exhibit attached hereto is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Homebuilding.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HOV Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | full | elevated |
DHI D. R. Horton | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PHM PulteGroup | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
LEN Lennar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NVR NVR, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | fair | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve total revenues between $650 million and $750 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Revenue for 2026-Q2 was $667.6M, within the previous guidance range of $625M to $725M. The company aims for $650M to $750M in 2026-Q3, indicating a consistent growth trajectory.
“For the third quarter of fiscal 2026, total revenues are expected to be between $650 million and $750 million.”
The company expects to maintain an adjusted homebuilding gross margin between 14.0% and 15.0% for the upcoming quarter.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has consistently guided for gross margins in the 13%-15% range. The latest guidance for 2026-Q3 is 14%-15%, showing a stable margin outlook.
“Adjusted homebuilding gross margin is expected to be between 14.0% and 15.0%.”
Management aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA between $30 million and $40 million for the third quarter of fiscal 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has maintained its adjusted EBITDA guidance at $30M-$40M for both 2026-Q2 and 2026-Q3, indicating a consistent earnings outlook.
“Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $30 million and $40 million.”
“Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $30 million and $40 million.”
Why it matters: This report affects consumer confidence and spending. Strong job data could help Hovnanian's sales.
Confirms:Employment numbers are growing. This shows a stronger job market.
Disproves:Employment numbers are falling. This suggests a weakening job market.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) Fourth Amended and Restated 2020 Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. Stock Incentive Plan On March 31, 2026, Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (the “Company”) held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “2026 Annual Meeting”) at which the Company’s stockholders approved the Fourth Amended and Restated 2020 Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. Stock Incentive Pl…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On February 25, 2026 , Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its preliminary financial results for the fiscal first quarter ended January 31, 2026 . A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the Exhibit attached hereto is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On December 4, 2025, Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its preliminary financial results for the fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal year ended October 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the Exhibit attached hereto is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange A…
is hereby incorporated by reference into this
“Adjusted homebuilding gross margin is expected to be between 13.0% and 14.0%.”
“Adjusted homebuilding gross margin is expected to be between 13.0% and 14.0%.”