Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (HOV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-29
$99.41-2.97%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put HOV beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Consumer Discretionary is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 10% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 39% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskHOV’s bet rests on earnings resilience, though its latest reported revenue declined and earnings were negative. Latest revenue fell 11.8% year over year in Q3 FY2026. Its shares trade at 45× P/E versus a 15× peer median. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, despite that large valuation gap. Weak cash backing for reported profits threatens the earnings case. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 30%. Peer multiples imply a price about 70% above where it trades. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. HOV is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 1 analyst currently covering HOV (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOV Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Homebuilding — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put HOV next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Downgrade indicates potential financial instability.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Threatens: Achieve total revenues between $800M and $900M in Q4 2026
Choppy market may hinder revenue growth objectives.
Advances: Maintain adjusted homebuilding gross margin between 14% and 15%
Margin recovery supports gross margin objective.
Advances: Achieve revenue between $650M and $750M in Q3 2026
Forecast exceeds revenue target, indicating strong growth.
Threatens: Achieve revenue between $650M and $750M in Q3 2026
Earnings miss impacts revenue growth objective.
Threatens: Achieve revenue between $650M and $750M in Q3 2026
Stock drop indicates market concerns over performance.
Threatens: Achieve revenue between $650M and $750M in Q3 2026
Loss indicates difficulty achieving revenue targets.
Earnings call provides insights on future performance.