Reading HII? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HII free→Reading HII? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HII free→NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 50% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. If HII cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $298.49. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $300 HII trades at 20× p/e, below its 38× p/e peer median. Our $603 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 50% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.99x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $4.30 → $3.84 (-10.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 8 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 42% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$137.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$306.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,663.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong demand. It also means more money for HII later.
Confirms:Total backlog was over $55 billion after Q2 2026.
Disproves:Total backlog falls below $54 billion after Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase shipbuilding throughput by ~15% in 2026
Contract supports shipbuilding throughput growth objective.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. Also furnished as Exhibit 99.2 is the corporation’s earnings presentation for the first quarter 2026 earnings release conference call.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HII Huntington Ingalls Industries | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on improving shipbuilding throughput by approximately 15% in 2026 to meet customer demand.
Target Mission Technologies segment revenue between $3.0 billion and $3.2 billion for FY26.
Target free cash flow between $500 million and $600 million for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: This revenue range indicates HII is on track to meet its annual revenue goals.
Confirms:Mission Technologies made between $750 million and $800 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Mission Technologies revenue falls below $700 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Steady earnings growth shows good performance and strong demand in the market.
Confirms:Q2 2026 diluted earnings per share matches or exceeds $4.04.
Disproves:Q2 2026 diluted earnings per share drops below $3.50.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow supports HII's financial health and ability to invest in growth.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported between $125 million and $150 million for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Free cash flow is negative or below $100 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: HII's technology is in high demand. Meeting this target shows that.
Confirms:FY26 Mission Technologies revenue reported within the range of $3.0B to $3.2B.
Disproves:Mission Technologies made less than $3.0B in revenue.
Why it matters: This cash flow helps HII invest. It also allows them to give value to shareholders.
Confirms:FY26 free cash flow reported between $500M and $600M.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported below $500M.
Why it matters: HII is getting better at making ships. This shows they can meet demand.
Confirms:Shipbuilding throughput growth of 15% or more in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Throughput growth is less than 10% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher contract awards indicate strong demand and backlog growth for HII.
Confirms:New contract awards reported above $4 billion in Q2.
Disproves:New contract awards reported below $2 billion in Q2.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. Also furnished as Exhibit 99.2 is the corporation’s earnings presentation for the fourth quarter 2025 earnings release conference call.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 30, 2025, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. Also furnished as Exhibit 99.2 is the corporation’s earnings presentation for the third quarter 2025 earnings release conference call.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On July 29, 2025, the Board of Directors of Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) elected Nick L. Stanage to the Board of Directors effective July 29, 2025. Mr. Stanage is the former Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and President of Hexcel Corporation, a manufacturer of advanced composites for the aerospace and defense and other ind…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 31, 2025, Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto. Also furnished as Exhibit 99.2 is the corporation’s earnings presentation for the second quarter 2025 earnings release conference call.