Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII)

NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-15

$272.00+1.79%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Huntington Ingalls Industries’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

20.95 → 21.14 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow between $500M and $600M in FY26	A supporting condition in Huntington Ingalls Industries's published investment case. The stated target is between $500M and $600M.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $500M in FY26	Free cash flow: $-105M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: between $500M and $600M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026-105,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Mission Technologies revenue between $3.0B and $3.2B in FY26	Mission Technologies aims for $3.0-$3.2 billion revenue this year.	Intact	Mission Technologies revenue falls below $3.0B in FY26	Mission Technologies revenue: $760M FY2026-Q2; reported segment. Published target: between $3.0B and $3.2B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026760,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source Mission Technologies · reported segment FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_segment_revenue. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: vendor observation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Mission Technologies revenue was $760M in 2026-Q2, down 3.9% from $791M in 2025-Q2. Company maintains FY26 guidance of $3.0-$3.2B revenue. The trajectory shows mixed delivery with recent slight decline but consistent guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operating margin near 5% in FY26	A primary condition in Huntington Ingalls Industries's published investment case. The stated target is 5.0%.	Intact	Operating margin falls below 4.0% in FY26	Operating margin: 6.14% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 5.0%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20266.143944 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 401ad82a-1b87-489f-98f5-8308dbd8c0de. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Shipbuilding revenue between $9.7B and $9.9B in FY26	A primary condition in Huntington Ingalls Industries's published investment case. The stated target is between $9.7B and $9.9B.	Intact	Shipbuilding revenue falls below $9.7B in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Shipbuilding revenues grew from $3.08B in 2025-Q2 to $3.42B in 2026-Q2 (+10.9%). CEO emphasized plans to achieve ~15% throughput improvement in 2026. The trajectory shows delivering progress toward this throughput growth goal. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$21.14

$20.17 → $21.14 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$14.28B

$13.85B → $14.28B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$20.17	$13,851,382,290	10 / 11
2026-07-25	$20.11	$13,822,351,901	10 / 10
2026-07-26	$20.17	$13,851,382,290	10 / 11
2026-07-27	$20.11	$13,822,351,901	10 / 10
2026-07-28	$20.11	$13,822,351,901	10 / 10
2026-07-29	$20.17	$13,851,382,290	10 / 11
2026-07-30	$20.11	$13,822,351,901	10 / 10
2026-07-31	$20.18	$13,855,746,605	10 / 10
2026-08-01	$20.18	$13,855,746,605	10 / 10
2026-08-02	$20.56	$14,026,363,290	10 / 11
2026-08-03	$20.46	$13,977,071,992	10 / 10
2026-08-04	$20.56	$14,026,363,290	10 / 11
2026-08-05	$20.51	$14,045,753,340	11 / 12
2026-08-06	$20.51	$14,045,753,340	11 / 12
2026-08-07	$20.46	$13,977,071,992	10 / 10
2026-08-08	$20.46	$13,977,071,992	10 / 10
2026-08-09	$20.74	$14,109,791,370	11 / 11
2026-08-10	$20.46	$13,977,071,992	10 / 10
2026-08-12	$20.74	$14,109,791,370	11 / 11
2026-08-13	$20.74	$14,109,791,370	11 / 11
2026-08-14	$20.46	$13,977,071,992	10 / 10
2026-08-15	$20.46	$13,977,071,992	10 / 10
2026-08-16	$20.46	$13,977,071,992	10 / 10
2026-08-17	$20.46	$13,977,071,992	10 / 10
2026-08-18	$20.46	$13,977,071,992	10 / 10
2026-08-19	$20.46	$13,977,071,992	10 / 11
2026-08-20	$20.96	$14,231,202,096	10 / 11
2026-08-21	$20.96	$14,231,202,096	10 / 11
2026-08-22	$20.86	$14,195,628,468	10 / 11
2026-08-23	$20.86	$14,195,628,468	10 / 11
2026-08-24	$20.86	$14,195,628,468	10 / 11
2026-08-25	$20.86	$14,195,628,468	10 / 11
2026-08-26	$20.86	$14,218,719,378	10 / 11
2026-08-27	$20.86	$14,218,719,378	10 / 11
2026-08-28	$20.86	$14,218,719,378	10 / 11
2026-08-29	$20.86	$14,218,719,378	10 / 11
2026-08-30	$20.86	$14,218,719,378	10 / 11
2026-08-31	$20.86	$14,218,719,378	10 / 11
2026-09-01	$20.86	$14,218,719,378	10 / 11
2026-09-02	$20.86	$14,218,719,378	10 / 11
2026-09-03	$20.86	$14,218,719,378	10 / 11
2026-09-04	$20.86	$14,218,719,378	10 / 11
2026-09-05	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-06	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-07	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-08	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-09	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-10	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-11	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-12	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-13	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-14	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-15	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-16	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-17	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-18	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-19	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-20	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-21	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-22	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-23	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-24	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-25	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-26	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-27	$20.95	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-28	$20.96	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-29	$20.96	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-09-30	$20.96	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-10-01	$20.96	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-10-02	$20.96	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-10-03	$20.96	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-10-04	$20.96	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-10-05	$20.96	$14,254,310,287	10 / 11
2026-10-06	$20.92	$14,256,037,559	10 / 11
2026-10-07	$20.92	$14,256,037,559	10 / 11
2026-10-08	$21.00	$14,263,902,070	10 / 11
2026-10-09	$21.00	$14,263,902,070	10 / 11
2026-10-10	$21.00	$14,263,902,070	10 / 11
2026-10-11	$21.11	$14,276,083,888	10 / 10
2026-10-12	$21.11	$14,276,083,888	10 / 10
2026-10-13	$21.11	$14,276,083,888	10 / 10
2026-10-14	$21.10	$14,276,083,888	10 / 10
2026-10-15	$21.14	$14,276,083,888	10 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	7	1
2026-06-01	5	7	1
2026-07-01	6	7	0
2026-08-01	6	7	0
2026-09-01	6	6	0
2026-10-01	6	6	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BernsteinOct 14 · prior Sep 23

$327.00 → $307.00-6.1%

Goldman SachsOct 1

$439.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$241.45$482.90

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow between $500M and $600M in FY26Free cash flow: $-105M
Mission Technologies revenue between $3.0B and $3.2B in FY26Mission Technologies revenue: $760M
Operating margin near 5% in FY26Operating margin: 6.14%
Shipbuilding revenue between $9.7B and $9.9B in FY26Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-43.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Huntington Ingalls Industries outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment is characterized as a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance despite some risks.

What's priced into Huntington Ingalls Industries

The valuation suggests that HII is considered cheap compared to its peers. The market seems to have low expectations, as indicated by a negative expectations gap.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain fragile due to mixed results in cash flow generation, although management is on track with its shipbuilding and Mission Technologies revenue goals. Recent earnings beats indicate some strength, but the risk of missing guidance remains.

What Huntington Ingalls Industries hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, it could support HII's momentum; however, any negative guidance from them could pose a risk.