NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Huntington Ingalls Industries grows shipbuilding revenue near $9.8 billion in 2026. Mission Technologies aims for $3.0-$3.2 billion revenue this year. Profit margin guidance is steady at 5%. The company has a cheap valuation with a PE of 18.8 versus peers at 38.
Shipbuilding throughput growth is uncertain with mixed progress. Mission Technologies shows revenue growth but declining profitability. The recent sharp share price drop signals market concerns. Profit margins are low at 5%, limiting earnings power.
The stock trades about 20% below our fair value near $366. Analysts expect 5% revenue growth. Our view aligns with this but sees risk in margin and execution.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $500M in FY26
Breaks if: Mission Technologies revenue falls below $3.0B in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats, but it faces challenges in cash flow generation.
The market currently prices HII as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. This suggests that investors may not fully account for the company's fragile earnings quality and potential execution risks.
Management has set ambitious goals for shipbuilding throughput and Mission Technologies revenue, with mixed results so far. The recent decline in free cash flow is a concern, but the company maintains guidance for improvement.
Key factors include the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX, which could influence HII's momentum. Additionally, any changes in guidance during the next earnings call could significantly impact investor sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Additionally, increased shipbuilding throughput by about 15% in 2026 reinforces growth expectations. There are no current threats to this improved view.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain Mission Technologies revenue in fiscal 2026 within the range of $3.0 to $3.2 billion, focusing on growth in unmanned systems and other segments.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Mission Technologies revenue was $760M in 2026-Q2, down 3.9% from $791M in 2025-Q2. Company maintains FY26 guidance of $3.0-$3.2B revenue. The trajectory shows mixed delivery with recent slight decline but consistent guidance.
“FY26 Mission Technologies revenue between $3.0 and $3.2 billion.”
“FY26 Mission Technologies revenue between $3.0 and $3.2 billion.”
“FY26 Mission Technologies revenue between $3.0 to $3.2 billion.”
“FY25 Mission Technologies revenue between $3.0 to $3.1 billion.”
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 4.0% in FY26
Breaks if: Shipbuilding revenue falls below $9.7B in FY26
Continue operational initiatives to improve shipbuilding throughput by approximately 15% in 2026, focusing on efficiency and expanding the industrial base network.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Shipbuilding revenues grew from $3.08B in 2025-Q2 to $3.42B in 2026-Q2 (+10.9%). CEO emphasized plans to achieve ~15% throughput improvement in 2026. The trajectory shows delivering progress toward this throughput growth goal.
“We continued to make good progress on our 2026 operational initiatives, with plans in place to achieve our shipbuilding throughput improvement goal of 15%.”
“Shipbuilding throughput has continued to improve with meaningful year over year growth in the first quarter as our team remains focused on driving efficiency and expanding the industrial base network.”
“Achieved ~14% shipbuilding throughput growth in 2025, targeting ~15% growth in 2026.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HII's performance will depend on its ability to meet management's ambitious targets and navigate sector dynamics. Not investment advice.
