Reading FSLR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FSLR free→Reading FSLR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FSLR free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind, and FSLR trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 69% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This valuation reflects that FSLR trades below peer multiples, and the recent financials and earnings quality are not flashing deterioration. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $264.36. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $274 FSLR trades at 18× p/e, below its 70× p/e peer median. Our $885 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $205–$315. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 69% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 29%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.47x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.88 → $2.82 (-2.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 19 cut, 20 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 13.7% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$183.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$490.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,510.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This balance is crucial for operational flexibility and growth. A drop below this range could raise concerns.
Confirms:Net cash balance reported below $1.7 billion.
Disproves:Net cash balance reported above $2.3 billion.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FSLR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026, First Solar, Inc. is issuing a press release and holding a conference call regarding its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K and in Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherw…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$205.00 – $315.00 (median $240.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-15
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FSLR First Solar | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | — | — | moderate |
AVGO Broadcom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MU Micron Technology | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 50% of the last 2 guided quarters · 6.8% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to aim for 2026 revenue between $4.9B and $5.2B.
Maintain operating expenses within the 2026 guidance range of $610M to $635M.
Keep capital expenditures within the 2026 guidance range of $0.8B to $1.0B.
Why it matters: Managing spending is key for cash flow and growth. Changes may affect guidance.
Confirms one read:Spending was less than $0.8 billion for 2026.
Confirms the other:Spending was more than $1.0 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Tax credits are important for making money. Changes may affect financial performance.
Confirms one read:Forecast for Section 45X tax credits raised above $400 million.
Confirms the other:Forecast for Section 45X tax credits is now below $330 million.
Why it matters: This range is crucial for maintaining revenue guidance for 2026. Sales below this range could signal demand issues.
Confirms:Module sales reported at or above 4.0 GW for Q2.
Disproves:Module sales reported below 3.4 GW for Q2.
Why it matters: Keeping operating expenses low is key to staying profitable as costs rise.
Confirms:Management says costs are under $610 million.
Disproves:Costs are over $635 million.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue guidance helps build trust with investors after the recent earnings miss.
Confirms:Management says Q2 revenue guidance stays the same during the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers Q2 revenue guidance. This shows there are bigger problems.
Why it matters: This figure is key to confirming financial health and operational efficiency. A miss could raise concerns.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA was $500 million or more for Q2.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA was less than $400 million for Q2.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 24, 2026, First Solar, Inc. is issuing a press release and holding a conference call regarding its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The information in this Form 8-K and in Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On February 13, 2026, First Solar, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Revolving Credit and Guaranty Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”), among the Company, the guarantors from time to time party thereto, the several banks and other financial institutions or entities from time to time parties thereto (the “Lenders”), and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent (the “Administrative Agent”). The Credit Agreement provides the Company with a se…
Creation of Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation with an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant The information set forth in
Termination of a Material Agreement On February 13, 2026, substantially concurrently with the Company’s entry into the Credit Agreement, the Company voluntarily terminated its existing senior secured revolving credit agreement (the “Existing Credit Agreement”), dated as of June 30, 2023 and as amended from time to time, among the Company, the guarantors from time to time party thereto, the several banks and other financial institutions or entities from time to time parties thereto, and JPMorg…