First Solar (FSLR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-10-29
$176.89+0.33%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put FSLR beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Semiconductors is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Generate free cash flow near $2B: Free cash flow guidance: $1.7B to $2.3B.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 24% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks among the strongest in its industry on quality — around the top 19%.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 47% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskFirst Solar’s case rests on its solar technology position, yet revenue growth has turned sharply negative. Q3 2026 revenue fell 23% year over year, despite an earnings beat. It trades at 11× P/E versus the 56× peer median; expectations look modest versus our view. The backlog shrank to 45.1 GW, weakening the future revenue pipeline. Reported profits are not well backed by cash, and the thesis’s free-cash-flow pillar is under pressure. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability at 26%. Peer multiples imply a price about 53% above where it trades; the thesis is on watch, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. FSLR is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 37 analysts currently covering FSLR (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 16 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for FSLR in the last 4 months.
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Compare FSLR with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSLR Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Semiconductors — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put FSLR next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Maintain 2026 revenue guidance
A reported guidance reduction directly threatens the 2026 revenue objective and indicates weaker near-term expectations.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $176.89
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $176.89.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Repurchase up to $500 million of shares
Board-authorized buyback advances the tracked repurchase objective; India output also supports module growth.
Threatens: Maintain 2026 revenue guidance
Analyst comments on tax credit impact on revenue growth.
Advances: Maintain 2026 revenue guidance
Positive price outlook supports revenue growth guidance.
Upgrade indicates positive outlook on pricing.
Strengthens competitive position in solar technology market.
Rating downgrade raises concerns about revenue guidance sustainability.
Threatens: Manage capital expenditures within $0.8B to $1.0B
High borrowing costs may hinder capital expenditures.
