First Solar (FSLR)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySolarSnapshot 2026-10-15

$172.64-3.45%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge First Solar’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

23.43 → 23.35 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 25 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 24 to 25; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Generate free cash flow near $2B	It targets free cash flow around $2 billion.	Under Pressure	Free cash flow falls below $1.7B in FY26	Free cash flow: $-306.221M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026-306,221,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Keep operating expenses within $610M to $635M	The company controls costs with operating expenses near $620 million.	Under Pressure	Operating expenses exceed $635M in FY26	Operating margin: 42.64% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $610M to $635M. Target and observation currencies differ. Source published Jul 30, 202642.642396 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2caaa312-901f-4aa6-b2e4-6bbac5616269. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Operating income improved from $345M in 2026-Q1 to $450M in 2026-Q2, consistent with controlled operating expenses within the $610M to $635M guidance range. Management has maintained this expense guidance steadily, indicating delivery on cost control. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain 2026 revenue near $5.1B	A primary condition in First Solar's published investment case. The stated target is ~$5.1B.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $4.9B in FY26	Revenue: $1.056B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$5.1B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20261,056,193,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 2caaa312-901f-4aa6-b2e4-6bbac5616269. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Revenue was $1.04B in 2026-Q1 and $1.06B in 2026-Q2, consistent with the 2026 guidance range of $4.9B to $5.2B. Management has consistently reaffirmed this revenue guidance, and the trajectory is delivering in line with expectations. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain valuation discount to peers	Its valuation is cheap compared to peers with a P/E of 14.7 versus sector median 73.4.	Intact	P/E rises above 20 without earnings growth	P/E (TTM): 11.02x As of 2026-10-15; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 15, 202611.024 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 15, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: FSLR:2026-10-15. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$23.35

$23.04 → $23.35 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.89B

$5.93B → $5.89B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$23.04	$5,926,976,960	29 / 29
2026-07-25	$23.04	$5,926,976,960	29 / 29
2026-07-26	$23.04	$5,926,976,960	29 / 29
2026-07-27	$23.04	$5,926,976,960	29 / 29
2026-07-28	$23.04	$5,926,976,960	29 / 29
2026-07-29	$24.05	$5,931,642,021	23 / 23
2026-07-30	$23.04	$5,926,976,960	29 / 29
2026-07-31	$23.04	$5,926,976,960	29 / 29
2026-08-01	$24.05	$5,931,642,021	23 / 23
2026-08-02	$23.79	$5,913,199,070	23 / 23
2026-08-03	$23.05	$5,934,824,880	30 / 31
2026-08-04	$23.05	$5,934,824,880	30 / 31
2026-08-05	$22.92	$5,930,530,200	30 / 31
2026-08-06	$22.92	$5,930,530,200	30 / 31
2026-08-07	$23.79	$5,913,199,070	23 / 23
2026-08-08	$22.74	$5,923,207,620	29 / 31
2026-08-09	$22.74	$5,923,207,620	29 / 31
2026-08-10	$22.74	$5,923,207,620	29 / 31
2026-08-11	$23.01	$5,929,684,390	30 / 31
2026-08-12	$23.79	$5,913,199,070	23 / 23
2026-08-13	$23.79	$5,913,199,070	23 / 23
2026-08-14	$23.79	$5,913,199,070	23 / 23
2026-08-15	$23.79	$5,913,199,070	23 / 23
2026-08-16	$23.79	$5,913,199,070	23 / 23
2026-08-17	$23.79	$5,913,199,070	23 / 23
2026-08-18	$23.79	$5,913,199,070	23 / 23
2026-08-19	$23.79	$5,913,199,070	24 / 23
2026-08-20	$23.39	$5,893,217,206	24 / 24
2026-08-21	$23.42	$5,893,217,206	24 / 24
2026-08-22	$23.42	$5,893,217,206	24 / 24
2026-08-23	$23.42	$5,893,217,206	24 / 24
2026-08-24	$23.42	$5,893,217,206	23 / 23
2026-08-25	$23.42	$5,893,217,206	23 / 23
2026-08-26	$23.42	$5,893,217,206	23 / 23
2026-08-27	$23.42	$5,893,217,206	23 / 23
2026-08-28	$23.42	$5,893,217,206	23 / 23
2026-08-29	$23.41	$5,893,200,539	23 / 23
2026-08-30	$23.41	$5,893,200,539	23 / 23
2026-08-31	$23.41	$5,893,200,539	23 / 23
2026-09-01	$23.41	$5,893,200,539	23 / 23
2026-09-02	$23.41	$5,893,200,539	23 / 23
2026-09-03	$23.41	$5,893,200,539	23 / 23
2026-09-04	$23.38	$5,888,848,834	23 / 23
2026-09-05	$23.38	$5,888,848,834	23 / 23
2026-09-06	$23.38	$5,888,848,834	23 / 23
2026-09-07	$23.38	$5,888,848,834	23 / 23
2026-09-08	$23.38	$5,888,848,834	23 / 23
2026-09-09	$23.43	$5,881,053,872	23 / 23
2026-09-10	$23.43	$5,881,053,872	24 / 24
2026-09-11	$23.43	$5,881,053,872	24 / 24
2026-09-12	$23.43	$5,881,053,872	24 / 24
2026-09-13	$23.43	$5,881,053,872	24 / 24
2026-09-14	$23.43	$5,881,053,872	24 / 24
2026-09-15	$23.43	$5,881,053,872	24 / 24
2026-09-16	$23.43	$5,881,053,872	24 / 24
2026-09-17	$23.43	$5,881,053,872	24 / 24
2026-09-18	$23.43	$5,881,053,872	24 / 24
2026-09-19	$23.43	$5,881,053,872	24 / 24
2026-09-20	$23.43	$5,881,053,872	24 / 24
2026-09-21	$23.43	$5,881,053,872	24 / 24
2026-09-22	$23.43	$5,881,053,872	24 / 24
2026-09-23	$23.43	$5,881,053,872	24 / 24
2026-09-24	$23.43	$5,881,053,872	24 / 24
2026-09-25	$23.36	$5,884,890,844	24 / 24
2026-09-26	$23.36	$5,884,890,844	24 / 24
2026-09-27	$23.36	$5,884,890,844	24 / 24
2026-09-28	$23.36	$5,884,890,844	24 / 24
2026-09-29	$23.36	$5,884,890,844	24 / 24
2026-09-30	$23.36	$5,884,890,844	24 / 24
2026-10-01	$23.33	$5,882,600,522	24 / 24
2026-10-02	$23.33	$5,882,600,522	24 / 24
2026-10-03	$23.33	$5,882,600,522	24 / 24
2026-10-04	$23.33	$5,886,453,872	24 / 24
2026-10-05	$23.33	$5,886,453,872	24 / 24
2026-10-06	$23.33	$5,886,453,872	24 / 24
2026-10-07	$23.33	$5,886,453,872	24 / 24
2026-10-08	$23.29	$5,886,453,872	24 / 24
2026-10-09	$23.29	$5,886,453,872	25 / 24
2026-10-10	$23.26	$5,886,270,539	25 / 24
2026-10-11	$23.26	$5,886,270,539	25 / 24
2026-10-12	$23.26	$5,886,270,539	25 / 24
2026-10-13	$23.34	$5,894,717,872	25 / 24
2026-10-14	$23.34	$5,894,717,872	25 / 24
2026-10-15	$23.35	$5,891,767,872	25 / 24

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	21	14	2
2026-06-01	21	12	3
2026-07-01	22	12	2
2026-08-01	25	12	2
2026-09-01	26	9	2
2026-10-01	27	9	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 27 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

2 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BarclaysOct 15 · prior Apr 21

$213.00 → $259.00+21.6%

Morgan StanleyOct 14 · prior Aug 18

$323.00 → $326.00+0.9%

Truist FinancialOct 12 · prior Jul 13

$249.00 → $270.00+8.4%

Goldman SachsOct 8

$272.00New observation · no comparable prior

Piper SandlerSep 30 · prior Sep 9

$260.00 → $251.00-3.5%

GLJ ResearchSep 22 · prior May 27

$315.00 → $250.00-20.6%

$0$179.30$358.60

3 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Generate free cash flow near $2BPublished status: Under Pressure
Keep operating expenses within $610M to $635MPublished status: Under Pressure
Maintain 2026 revenue near $5.1BPublished status: Under Pressure
Maintain valuation discount to peersP/E (TTM): 11.02x

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-45.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

First Solar outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is mixed, as recent financial performance has been neutral, but the company has maintained its revenue guidance.

What's priced into First Solar

The market currently prices FSLR as cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. However, the fragility in earnings quality suggests that the market is cautious about potential execution issues.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are expected to remain stable, as management has consistently reaffirmed revenue and expense guidance. However, there is a near-term risk of missing earnings estimates, which could impact sentiment.

What First Solar hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain revenue guidance and control operating expenses. Additionally, favorable movements in interest rates and positive earnings from sector peers could provide supportive momentum.