Reading FMCB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FMCB free→Reading FMCB? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FMCB free→FinancialsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If FMCB cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1321.00. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1,321 FMCB trades at 10× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $1,411 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 6% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.11x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=4725).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$42.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$154.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $717.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The financial sector is easing, and a drop in revenue growth could signal deeper issues. This could affect investor confidence.
Confirms:Revenue growth for the company falls below the median of its historical growth rates.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays steady or gets better. This shows strength in a slowing market.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FMCB yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The Board of Directors of Farmers & Merchants Bancorp (the “Company”) appointed Jehna Silva to serve as a director of the Company effective June 8, 2026. Most recently, Ms. Silva served as Vice President, Shareholder Relations, of the Company where she managed shareholder communications, supported governance and managed shareholder reporting. Ms. S…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Financials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FMCB Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc/Archbold OH | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | low |
MA Mastercard | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Why it matters: The unemployment rate can impact consumer spending and loan performance. A rising rate may signal economic stress.
Confirms:The unemployment rate goes up a lot in the weekly claims report.
Disproves:The unemployment rate goes down or stays the same. This shows the economy is strong.
Why it matters: A new CEO can change the company's direction and affect performance. Investors will want to see if the new leadership brings fresh ideas or stability.
Confirms one read:The new CEO shares a plan. This plan aims to improve how the company works.
Confirms the other:The company has trouble with its plans. It reports negative changes in performance.
Other Events On May 11, 2026, Farmers & Merchants Bancorp announced the Board of Directors’ declaration of a quarterly cash dividend, a copy of which is included as Exhibit 99 and incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 20, 2026, Farmers & Merchants Bancorp issued a press release concerning financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, a copy of which is included as Exhibit 99 and incorporated herein by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 2, 2026, Farmers & Merchants Bancorp issued a press release concerning financial results for the full year of 2025, a copy of which is included as Exhibit 99 and incorporated herein by reference.
Other Events On February 10, 2026, Farmers & Merchants Bancorp announced the Board of Directors’ declaration of a quarterly cash dividend, a copy of which is included as Exhibit 99 and incorporated herein by reference.