Reading FDP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FDP free→Reading FDP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FDP free→NYSEConsumer StaplesFarm ProductsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been neutral, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major players in the Consumer Staples sector. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $28.83. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $29 FDP trades at 9× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $41 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 30% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.36x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=1037).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.10 → $0.53 (-51.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$116.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$289.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,393.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows that the company is strong. It also keeps a promise to shareholders.
Confirms:The company confirms it will keep the $0.30 quarterly dividend.
Disproves:The company says it will cut or stop the quarterly dividend.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FDP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 5, 2026, Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. announced its financial results for the quarter ended March 27, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FDP Fresh Del Monte Produce, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding and strengthening the portfolio through the acquisition of Del Monte Foods.
Continue to provide shareholder returns through a consistent quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share.
Continue efforts to enhance operating income through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Increase cash flow from operating activities to support business operations and investments.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend payment shows a commitment to how money is used. This can help investors trust the company.
Confirms:Dividend payment of $0.30 per share is made on June 11, 2026.
Disproves:If the dividend payment is cut or canceled, it may mean financial trouble.
Why it matters: Growth in this segment will indicate successful integration of Del Monte Foods and market demand.
Confirms:Prepared foods segment reports net sales growth above 10% year over year in Q2.
Disproves:Prepared foods segment shows flat or declining net sales compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Updates on the integration will show how well the acquisition strengthens Fresh Del Monte's growth.
Confirms:Management says sales and operations are better. This is due to Del Monte Foods integration.
Disproves:Management points out problems or delays with Del Monte Foods that hurt performance.
Why it matters: Continued strength in cash flow supports operational stability and future investments. This is crucial for growth.
Confirms:Cash from operating activities stays above $44.1M in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities falls below $44.1M. This may mean cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows better cost control. It also means more efficiency.
Confirms:Operating income goes up by at least 10% compared to Q1.
Disproves:Operating income goes down or stays the same compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) can affect consumer spending on Fresh Del Monte's products.
Confirms one read:CPI increases more than 0.5% in June 2026, indicating rising prices.
Confirms the other:CPI decreases or remains flat in June 2026, indicating stable prices.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow helps Fresh Del Monte invest and pay dividends. This is important for keeping shareholders confident.
Confirms:Operating cash flow exceeds $50 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Operating cash flow falls below $30 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better margins in fresh products show improved pricing or cost control. This is key for making money.
Confirms:Gross margin in fresh and value-added products rises above 11% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Gross margin in fresh and value-added products falls below 9% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on the integration will show how well Fresh Del Monte is managing the new assets. Success here could boost growth.
Confirms:Look for good news about cost savings or sales growth from Del Monte Foods.
Disproves:Watch for news about problems or delays in the integration process.
Other Events. On April 28, 2026, Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. issued a press release announcing the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share on its outstanding common stock. The dividend will be paid on June 11, 2026, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 19, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. Pursuant to the Asset Purchase Agreement, the Company agreed to acquire (i) the prepared and packaged foods businesses of Del Monte Foods comprising canned vegetable, tomato, and refrigerated fruit business assets operated under the Del Monte ® , S&W ® , and Contadina ® trademarks, (ii) four US facilities, two facilities in Mexico, and one facility in Venezuela and (iii) global ownership of the Del Monte ® brand, which is subject to existing…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On March 19, 2026, Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. (the “ Company ” or “ FDP ”) entered into Amendment No. 1 to the Asset Purchase Agreement (the “ Amendment ”) with Del Monte Foods Holdings Limited and certain of its affiliates (collectively “ Del Monte Foods ”) that amended the asset purchase agreement by and between the Company and Del Monte Foods, dated February 6, 2026 (the “ Original Asset Purchase Agreement ,” and as amended by the Amendment, the…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 18, 2026 , Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. (the "Company") announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.