Expensify, Inc. (EXFY)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-29
$2.35-3.29%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put EXFY beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Application Software is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 4% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 56% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskEXFY’s case rests on sales-based value, though recent financial performance is weak and risk is high. Revenue fell 5% year over year in Q2 FY2026, and the company was unprofitable over the past year. EXFY trades at 2× sales versus a 4× peer median, while expectations look modest versus our view. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 41%. The sales multiple must be earned despite the peer gap and recent revenue decline. Peer multiples imply a price about 55% above where it trades. Our read remains intact; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. EXFY is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 3 analysts currently covering EXFY (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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Compare EXFY with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXFY Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Application Software — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put EXFY next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Achieve positive free cash flow for FY 2026
Raised cash flow guidance supports positive free cash flow objective.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Advances: Achieve positive free cash flow for FY 2026
Positive free cash flow guidance supports FY 2026 objective.
Advances: Grow New Expensify customer base and revenue
AI-driven growth significantly boosts customer base and revenue.
Advances: Achieve positive free cash flow for FY 2026
Free cash flow outlook improvement supports positive cash flow goal.
Partnership enhances service offerings and potential revenue.
Strategic partnership significantly enhances market position.
Earnings miss raises concerns about operational efficiency.
Earnings miss raises concerns about operational efficiency.
