Reading EVI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EVI free→Reading EVI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EVI free→
AMEXIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared to sector peers, where EVI is typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. If EVI cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $16.31. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $16 EVI trades at 36× p/e — 1.3× the 28× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $18 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.43x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.16 → $0.17 (+6.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$201.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$560.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,305.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
risk label changed from 'high' to 'elevated'.
As of June 15, 2026, risk changed and rose to an elevated level. The sector backdrop also fell, indicating a headwind for the company. The valuation remained fair, suggesting that the stock is priced roughly in line with peer multiples.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may mean the economy is weak. This could hurt EVI's business.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims drop below 250,000.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EVI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 11, 2026, EVI Industries, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is furnished pursuant to
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EVI EVI Industries, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | fair | elevated |
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
EVI prioritizes durable value creation over short-term margin gains, aiming to build a scalable and market-resilient platform.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. EVI's focus on durable value creation is reflected in its strategy to build a scalable and market-resilient platform. However, financial results show a decline in revenue from $115.3M in 2026-Q2 to $101.1M in 2026-Q3, indicating limited progress in achieving this goal.
“EVI continues to prioritize durable value creation over short-term margin gains.”
EVI aims to achieve revenue growth to a record $324.7 million for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q3. EVI aims for revenue growth to $324.7M, a 16% increase. However, quarterly revenue declined from $115.3M in 2026-Q2 to $101.1M in 2026-Q3, showing limited progress towards this annual target.
“Revenue increased 16% to a record $324.7 million.”
Why it matters: If industrial revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift for EVI.
Confirms:3-year revenue growth in the industrial sector rises above 7%.
Disproves:3-year revenue growth in the industrial sector stays below 5%.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 9, 2026, EVI Industries, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is furnished pursuant to
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As described below, at the Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”) of EVI Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) held on December 15, 2025, the Company’s stockholders approved the EVI Industries, Inc. 2025 Equity Incentive Plan (the “2025 Plan”). Employees, officers, directors and consultants of the Company and its subsidiaries, including…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 10, 2025, EVI Industries, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is furnished pursuant to
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On September 11, 2025, EVI Industries, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and twelve months ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is furnished pursuant to