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EVI Industries, Inc. (EVI)
AMEXIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$16.31-3.43%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared to sector peers, where EVI is typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. If EVI cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- AMEX
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Distribution
- Market cap
- $217.36M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1995-11-08
- Next earnings
- 2026-09-10
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $16.31. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$16.60consensus
Range $12.53 – $21.61
vs price: -2% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$46.32consensus
Range $46.32 – $46.32
vs price: -65% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratingmedium confidence
At $16 EVI trades at 36× p/e — 1.3× the 28× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $18 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
36.2x
peer 27.9x · own history —
Premium
1.3x peer
Growth the price needs
-9%
our forecast 15%
Our fair value
$18.02
range $12.53 – $20.81
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
54th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.43x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
80th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +6.3% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.16 → $0.17 (+6.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme aerospace-recovery.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$201.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$560.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,305.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- risk change · risk_labelsmall change
risk label changed from 'high' to 'elevated'.
As of June 15, 2026, risk changed and rose to an elevated level. The sector backdrop also fell, indicating a headwind for the company. The valuation remained fair, suggesting that the stock is priced roughly in line with peer multiples.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideMedium confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for changes in unemployment claims on June 25, 2026
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may mean the economy is weak. This could hurt EVI's business.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims drop below 250,000.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EVI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like GWW, FAST, and FERG keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting EVI and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If EVI raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-11), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If EVI cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-11), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like GWW, FAST, and FERG start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping EVI and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits EVI and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-111mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 11, 2026, EVI Industries, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is furnished pursuant to
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+3.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.