Reading EVCM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EVCM free→Reading EVCM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EVCM free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
EVCM shows a stable management track record and robust earnings quality, although recent financial performance is neutral and risk is high. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and the company is priced roughly in line with peer multiples, which suggests it looks expensive on this basis. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers, as these could significantly impact EVCM's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.13 EVCM trades at 33× p/e — 1.6× the 21× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $8.57 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 7% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.24x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.17 → $0.16 (-5.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 5 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 44% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$232.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$548.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,388.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it signals a slowdown in the tech sector. This could hurt EverCommerce's performance.
Confirms:Revenue growth falls below the median for the sector.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above the median for the sector.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EVCM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, EverCommerce Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the three and nine months ended March 31, 2026 and other matters described in the press release. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. The information disclosed under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished and shall…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EVCM EverCommerce, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | high |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve a revenue range of $612 million to $632 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Management targets Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $183 million to $191 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Management aims to achieve a revenue range of $150.5 million to $153.5 million for the second quarter of 2026.
Why it matters: The FOMC decision may change interest rates. This could affect EverCommerce's costs.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates. This shows a stricter monetary policy.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates unchanged or lowers them.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 12, 2026, EverCommerce Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025 and other matters described in the press release. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. The information disclosed under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished and shal…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 6, 2025, EverCommerce Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 and other matters described in the press release. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. The information disclosed under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2025, EverCommerce Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 and other matters described in the press release. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference. The information disclosed under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being furnished and shal…
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 29, 2025, certain subsidiaries of EverCommerce Inc. entered into Amendment No. 5 (the “Amendment”) to the Credit Agreement, dated as of July 6, 2021, among EverCommerce Intermediate Inc., EverCommerce Solutions Inc. (the “Borrower”), Royal Bank of Canada, as administrative agent and collateral agent, and the other parties and lenders party thereto (as amended, the “Credit Agreement”). The Amendment, among other things, (i) refinances the exi…