Reading EFC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EFC free→Reading EFC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track EFC free→NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 40% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while earnings quality is fragile. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends from bellwethers like NLY and STWD. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.67. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 EFC trades at 7× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $24 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 43% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 24%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted -3.77x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.45 → $0.46 (+1.9% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$69.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$147.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,767.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how revenue is growing and net income is improving.
Confirms one read:The company reports Q2 earnings showing net income growth compared to Q1.
Confirms the other:The company reports Q2 earnings showing a decline in net income compared to Q1.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for EFC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events On June 8, 2026, Ellington Financial Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors has declared the following: (i) a monthly dividend of $0.13 per share of common stock, payable on July 31, 2026 to common stockholders of record as of June 30, 2026; (ii) a quarterly dividend of $0.390625 per share on the Company's 6.250% Series B Fixed-Rate Reset Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock, payable on July 30, 2026 to Series B preferred stockholders…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Financials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
EFC Ellington Financial, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
EWBC East West Bancorp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
CG Carlyle Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 13 of 100 | full | elevated |
NLY Annaly Capital Management | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | full | moderate |
UNM Unum | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 15 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Ellington Financial aims to maintain a consistent dividend payout to its shareholders.
Ellington Financial focuses on improving net income through strategic investments and operations.
Ellington Financial aims to increase revenue through diversified financial asset investments.
Why it matters: Steady net income growth shows the company is making more money. This affects future investment choices.
Confirms:Net income exceeds $95 million in the next quarter.
Disproves:Net income drops below $95 million.
Why it matters: Confirming the dividend shows the company is sticking to its payout plan.
Confirms:The company will issue a press release about the $0.13 dividend on July 31, 2026.
Disproves:The company will cancel or lower the dividend set for July 31, 2026.
Why it matters: Higher revenue growth means strong market demand. It shows the company is working well. This could bring in more investors.
Confirms:Revenue exceeds $149.5 million in the next quarter.
Disproves:Revenue falls below $149.5 million.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial stability. It also shows commitment to shareholders. A change could hurt investor trust.
Confirms:The company declares a monthly dividend of $0.13 per share for June 2026.
Disproves:The company reduces the dividend payout below $0.13 per share.
Why it matters: Changes in book value can show changes in asset performance and financial health.
Confirms one read:The company reports an estimated book value per share above $13.43 after June 30, 2026.
Confirms the other:The estimated book value per share drops below $13.43 after June 30, 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers As indicated below, on May 28, 2026, at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “2026 Annual Meeting”) of Ellington Financial Inc. (the “Company”), the Company’s stockholders approved the Ellington Financial Inc. 2026 Equity Incentive Plan (the “Equity Incentive Plan”). The material features of the Equity Incentive Plan are described in Proposa…
of Form 8-K, insofar as they disclose historical information regarding the Company's results of operations or financial condition for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. On May 5, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instructions B.2 and B.6 of Form 8-K,…
Other Events On May 7, 2026, Ellington Financial Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors has declared a monthly dividend of $0.13 per share of common stock, payable on June 30, 2026 to common stockholders of record as of May 29, 2026. A copy of the press release is filed herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K and the information related to the dividend is incorporated herein by reference.
Other Events On April 7, 2026, Ellington Financial Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing that its Board of Directors has declared a monthly dividend of $0.13 per share of common stock, payable on May 29, 2026 to common stockholders of record as of April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is filed herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K and the information related to the dividend is incorporated herein by reference.