Reading DXPE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DXPE free→Reading DXPE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DXPE free→NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial DistributionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. The top factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact DXPE's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $166.19. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $168 DXPE trades at 31× p/e, in line with its 28× p/e peer median. Our $151 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 11% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.37x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.57 → $1.59 (+1.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$183.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$406.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,299.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth could signal weakening demand or execution issues. This would raise concerns about the company's growth strategy.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth below 9% year-over-year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth of 9% or higher year-over-year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DXPE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION The following information is furnished pursuant to Regulation FD. On May 7, 2026 , DXP Enterprises, Inc., issued a press release announcing financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1, and incorporated herein by reference. Such exhibit (i) is furnished pursuant to
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DXPE DXP Enterprises, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | full | elevated |
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | full | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and acquisitions.
Improve operating income through cost management and operational efficiency.
Enhance cash flow from operations to support strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow from operations would raise concerns about DXP's financial health.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations is below $29.6 million.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations reported at or above $29.6 million.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector grows again, it could help DXP's revenue. This matters for performance.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow from operations helps growth and lowers debt worries. This improves financial stability.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations exceeds $30 million.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations remains below $30 million.
Why it matters: If operating income grows over 15%, it shows better cost management. This can help profits.
Confirms:Operating income was over $48.00M for Q2.
Disproves:Operating income was below $40.00M for Q2.
Why it matters: High debt levels may raise worries about financial health. This can affect future growth and deals.
Confirms:Total debt reported above $844.7 million.
Disproves:Total debt reported below $844.7 million.
Why it matters: More acquisitions would show DXP is serious about growth and expanding its market.
Confirms:Announcement of at least two more acquisitions in 2026.
Disproves:No new acquisitions announced by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Staying above $25M would show strong cash flow management. This is key for funding growth initiatives.
Confirms:Cash from operations reported above $25M for Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations reported below $20M for Q2.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION The following information is furnished pursuant to Regulation FD. On February 25, 2026, DXP Enterprises, Inc., issued a press release announcing financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1, and incorporated herein by reference. Such exhibit (i) is furnished pursuant to