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Dolby (DLB)
NYSEInformation TechnologySpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$53.43+1.73%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is moderate, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind, helping DLB compared with sector peers, which trade above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and the performance of sector bellwethers like NVDA and AMD. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Specialty Business Services
- Market cap
- $4.97B
- Employees
- 2,051
- IPO date
- 2004-11-19
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-30
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $53.43. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$72.87consensus
Range $45.67 – $89.10
vs price: -27% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$71.43consensus
Range $41.02 – $109.37
vs price: -25% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $53 DLB trades at 13× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $73 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
12.7x
peer 21.2x · own history 21.0x
Premium
0.6x peer
0.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
-27%
our forecast 2%
Our fair value
$72.87
range $44.09 – $89.42
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 27% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
96th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.39x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
35th pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearish2 analysts, 75% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.67 → $0.67 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$109.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$226.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,056.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'fair'.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from inexpensive to fair. The macro backdrop is now characterized as a tailwind, indicating a supportive environment for the stock. Risk remains moderate, and recent financial performance is strong. The company is currently priced roughly in line with peer multiples.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 18d
Watch for Q2 earnings results on August 5, 2026
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Dolby is increasing cash from operations as planned. This is key for future growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows cash from operating activities up more than 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows cash from operating activities down or flat year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DLB yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for DLB and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NVDA, AMD, and AVGO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting DLB and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If DLB raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If DLB cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NVDA, AMD, and AVGO start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping DLB and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-301mo agoItem 2.02
of Form 8-K, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” This information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. On April 30, 2026, Dolby Laboratories, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its fin…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+6.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.