Reading CWAN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CWAN free→Reading CWAN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CWAN free→NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, CWAN trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 191% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $24.26. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $24, CWAN's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 64× p/e (3.0× the 21× p/e peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~202% near-term growth vs our ~63% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $8.04 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 202% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 63%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted -3.52x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.17 → $0.16 (-5.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$21.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$244.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,960.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in Clearwater's market. This affects its performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is below its average from the past.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is still above its average from the past.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CWAN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the exhibits attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act, or otherwise subject to the liabilities…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CWAN Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to reduce its debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 3.0 by December 2026.
Newly stated in 2025-Q3. The company has not provided specific financial metrics related to this priority in the recent quarters. Without detailed financials on debt or EBITDA, the trajectory remains unclear.
“The Company remains committed to reducing its debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 3.0 by December 2026.”
The company has set a revenue target of $730 million to $731 million for the full year 2025.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Revenue grew from $126.9M in 2025-Q1 to $221.2M in 2026-Q1, indicating strong growth. However, the full-year target for 2025 was not explicitly confirmed in the latest financials, leaving the trajectory partially unverified.
The company has set an Adjusted EBITDA target of $247 million for the full year 2025.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. The company has not provided specific Adjusted EBITDA figures in the recent financials, making it difficult to assess progress towards the $247M target. The trajectory remains unverified without explicit EBITDA data.
“Consolidated Guidance for CWAN: Full Year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA $247 million.”
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Clearwater can improve its loss-making status. Investors look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a reduction in losses compared to the previous quarter.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows losses are getting bigger or staying the same.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 18, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the exhibits attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act, or otherwise subject to the li…
is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. Use of Forward-Looking Statements This repo…
Other Events On January 23, 2026, at 12:00 a.m., New York City time, the “go-shop” period expired under the terms of the previously announced Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated as of December 20, 2025 (the “Merger Agreement”), by and among GT Silver BidCo, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Parent”), GT Silver Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of Parent, and Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”). Pursuant to the Merger Agre…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Merger Agreement On December 20, 2025, Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc., a Delaware corporation, (the “ Company ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with GT Silver BidCo, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Parent ”), and GT Silver Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of Parent (“ Merger Sub ”), pursuant to which, on the terms and conditions set forth therein and in accordance wit…
“Consolidated Guidance for CWAN: Full Year 2025 Revenue $730 million to $731 million.”