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Cerence, Inc. (CRNC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Intact
$10.88+2.40%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 53% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. If CRNC reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising, that would be a credibility hit on top of the lower number. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- Market cap
- $479.89M
- Employees
- 1,300
- IPO date
- 2019-10-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.88. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$22.61consensus
Range $21.28 – $23.95
vs price: -52% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$59.10consensus
Range $38.35 – $79.84
vs price: -82% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $11 CRNC trades at 2× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $23 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
1.7x
peer 3.0x · own history —
Premium
0.6x peer
Growth the price needs
-52%
our forecast 23%
Our fair value
$22.51
range $21.00 – $24.02
WhyEarnings too small for P/EPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 52% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 23%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
57th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -4.50x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
stable3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral5 analysts, 20% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.20 → $0.20 (-1.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 20% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme AI/accelerated-compute.tailwind
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$260.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$668.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,592.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for sector revenue growth dropping below median
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth falls, it may hurt Cerence's performance. This could signal a broader slowdown.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median for the last year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CRNC yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for CRNC and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and CDNS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting CRNC and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If CRNC reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-07), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and CDNS start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping CRNC and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits CRNC and other Tech names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026 , Cerence Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release, including the financial information contained therein, is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, and is incorporated herein by reference. Also on May 7, 2026 , the Company will use a presentation on its call with investors, discussing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026, and such ear…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-16
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.