Reading CRNC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CRNC free→Reading CRNC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 53% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. If CRNC reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising, that would be a credibility hit on top of the lower number. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.88. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $11 CRNC trades at 2× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $23 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 52% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 23%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted -4.50x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.20 → $0.20 (-1.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 20% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$260.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$668.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,592.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth falls, it may hurt Cerence's performance. This could signal a broader slowdown.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median for the last year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CRNC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026 , Cerence Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release, including the financial information contained therein, is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, and is incorporated herein by reference. Also on May 7, 2026 , the Company will use a presentation on its call with investors, discussing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026, and such ear…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CRNC Cerence, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve revenue between $305 million and $320 million for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue for 2026-Q2 was $64.2M, down from $115.1M in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the full-year target of $305M to $320M.
“Revenue is expected to be in the range of $305 million to $320 million.”
“Guidance for the full fiscal year ending September 30, 2026 is reaffirmed, with revenue expected to be in the range of $300 million to $320 million.”
“We are providing full fiscal year revenue guidance of $300 million to $320 million.”
Management targets a gross margin improvement to between 79% and 80% for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Gross profit for 2026-Q2 was $47.3M on revenue of $64.2M, indicating a gross margin of approximately 73.7%. The current margin is below the target range, showing limited progress.
“Gross Margin is expected to be in the range of 79% to 80%.”
Management aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA between $60 million and $70 million for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income for 2026-Q2 was -$2.4M, down from $29.3M in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the adjusted EBITDA target of $60M to $70M.
“Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $60 million to $70 million.”
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 4, 2026 , Cerence Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025. The press release, including the financial information contained therein, is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, and is incorporated herein by reference. Also on February 4, 2026 , the Company will use a presentation on its call with investors, discussing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended December 31, 20…
Other Events. On December 23, 2025, the Company entered into privately negotiated transactions with certain holders of its 1.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2028 (the “Notes”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to repurchase $30 million aggregate principal amount of Notes from such holders at a cash repurchase price equal to 92% of their principal amount, together with the accrued and unpaid interest thereon to (but not including) the settlement date. The Company intends to cancel the rep…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 19, 2025 , Cerence Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2025. The press release, including the financial information contained therein, is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, and is incorporated herein by reference. Also on November 19, 2025 , the Company will use a presentation on its call with investors, discussing its financial results for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2025…
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On September 2, 2025, Cerence Inc. (the “Company”) announced a restructuring plan with respect to certain foreign operations intended to further reduce operating expenses and position the Company for profitable future growth (the “Plan”). The Company estimates that it will incur cash restructuring charges of approximately $7.2 to $7.9 million in connection with the Plan, primarily consisting of severance payments, payments in lieu of notice,…
“Adjusted EBITDA expected to be in the range of $50 million to $70 million.”