Reading BWXT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BWXT free→Reading BWXT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BWXT free→NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, while management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, with the sector backdrop presenting a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact BWXT's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $194.06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $194 BWXT trades at 47× p/e, in line with its 38× p/e peer median. Our $144 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 35% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 20%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.51x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.05 → $1.04 (-0.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 8 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$196.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$473.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,324.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would show the good progress from Q1 and the acquisition's effect.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 30% year over year, indicating strong demand.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 20% year over year, suggesting weakening demand.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
TRISO fuel milestone supports growth and innovation in nuclear sector.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026, we issued a press release announcing our financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1, and the information contained in Exhibit 99.1 is incorporated by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, (th…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BWXT BWX Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | full | elevated |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Focus on driving revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Improve operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Aim to increase net income through strategic growth and cost control.
Why it matters: Good integration will help BWXT make products better. It will also improve their market position.
Confirms:Positive news about the integration process and early revenue from PCG is a good sign.
Disproves:Reports of integration problems or delays can hurt how well the company performs.
Why it matters: His experience in aerospace and defense may shape BWXT's strategy.
Confirms one read:Board decisions reflecting a focus on growth in aerospace and defense sectors.
Confirms the other:No big changes in strategy or board decisions after the appointment is a concern.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 23, 2026, we issued a press release announcing our financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1, and the information contained in Exhibit 99.1 is incorporated by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as am…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 18, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of BWX Technologies, Inc. (the "Company") increased the size of the Board from nine to ten directors and appointed Daniel L. Jablonsky to the Board effective as of March 2, 2026 and with an initial term expiring at the Company's annual meeting of shareholders in 2026. Mr. Jablonsky will par…