BWX Technologies (BWXT)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
$156.71-2.31%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Free cash flow reaches at least $315 million in 2026: FCF $50.0M-$80.0M vs $315.0M target.
BWX Technologies grows revenue about 15% a year. Profit rises with operating income improving from $96.6M to $106.7M in one year. Free cash flow is strong, with guidance raised to $315-$330 million for 2026. The company wins new defense contracts and expands nuclear fuel innovation.
The recent sharp selloff shows investor concern. Guidance is soft despite raised EPS targets. Competition from peers like Oklo may pressure revenue growth. Elevated valuation with a PE of 45 times risks a correction if growth slows.
The stock trades about 14% above our fair value near $163, reflecting roughly 15% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is 34% below the Street median, indicating some valuation risk if growth disappoints.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $275 million in FY26
Breaks if: Net income falls below $75.5 million quarterly
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $96.6 million quarterly
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
BWXT represents a stable business with a focus on revenue and profit growth. The current thesis is that management is effectively executing its priorities, although risks in the sector could impact performance.
The market currently prices BWXT at a premium compared to its peers, reflecting justified expectations for its performance. There is a low expectations gap, indicating that the market does not anticipate significant surprises in the near term.
Management has consistently delivered revenue and profit growth, with recent results showing positive trends. However, there is a near-term risk of missing guidance, which could affect credibility and performance.
The future performance of BWXT will depend on the broader Industrials sector, particularly the performance of key competitors like SPCX, GE, and RTX. Positive earnings from these companies could support BWXT, while negative results could create headwinds.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'favorable' to 'mild_favorable'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company beat earnings expectations in Q2. BWXT raised its full-year revenue guidance to $3.8 billion. It also signed over $1.4 billion in new Navy contracts. The article noted high barriers to entry for competitors in its market. This suggests BWXT's position in the nuclear sector remains strong.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $3.1 billion in FY26
Drive revenue growth across Government and Commercial Operations, including expansion in commercial nuclear manufacturing.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $764.0 million in 2025-Q2 to $901.6 million in 2026-Q2 (+18%). Full year 2026 revenue guidance was raised above $3.75 billion from $3.2 billion in 2025. Management is delivering consistent revenue growth, especially in Commercial Operations.
“Strong second quarter 2026 results that were ahead of our expectations, high growth in Commercial Operations.”
“First quarter results driven by pacing of work and growth in commercial power markets.”
“Record year with 50% backlog growth driven by large multi-year naval propulsion and commercial nuclear power awards.”
Overall, BWXT's fundamentals are stable, but the elevated risks and expensive valuation warrant caution. Not investment advice.