BWX Technologies (BWXT)

NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-23

$127.19-0.09%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge BWX Technologies’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.29 → 5.24 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.08B
EPS	—	1.368
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	About $3.8B	3.81B
EPS	$4.7–$4.8non-GAAP	4.742
EBITDA	$662M–$672Mnon-GAAP	—
Free cash flow	$345M–$360M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	4.14B
EPS	—	5.243

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow reaches at least $315 million in 2026	Free cash flow is strong, with guidance raised to $315-$330 million for 2026.	Broken	Free cash flow falls below $275 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $114.972M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $315 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 2026114,972,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income grows beyond $91.1 million quarterly run rate	A supporting condition in BWX Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is > $91.1 million quarterly.	Intact	Net income falls below $75.5 million quarterly	Net income: $89.014M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > $91.1 million quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 202689,014,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7fcc4f4c-a4c6-45ba-b91b-7d4cc7fdb051. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net income increased from $78.5 million in 2025-Q2 to $89.0 million in 2026-Q2 (+13%), and diluted GAAP EPS rose from $0.85 to $0.97 (+14%). Management is delivering growth in earnings per share consistent with operational improvements. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improves beyond $106.7 million quarterly run rate	Profit rises with operating income improving from $96.6M to $106.7M in one year.	Broken	Operating income falls below $96.6 million quarterly	Operating income: $114.136M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > $106.7 million quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026114,136,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7fcc4f4c-a4c6-45ba-b91b-7d4cc7fdb051. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA increased from $145.9 million in 2025-Q2 to $155.5 million in 2026-Q2 (+7%), and operating income rose from $102.4 million to $114.1 million (+11%). Management is delivering improved profitability driven by Commercial Operations growth. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows to at least $3.75 billion in 2026	A primary condition in BWX Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.75 billion.	Broken	Revenue falls below $3.1 billion in FY26	Revenue: $901.625M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.75 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026901,625,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7fcc4f4c-a4c6-45ba-b91b-7d4cc7fdb051. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $764.0 million in 2025-Q2 to $901.6 million in 2026-Q2 (+18%). Full year 2026 revenue guidance was raised above $3.75 billion from $3.2 billion in 2025. Management is delivering consistent revenue growth, especially in Commercial Operations. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.24

$5.19 → $5.24 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.14B

$4.17B → $4.14B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.19	$4,165,663,910	14 / 15
2026-07-25	$5.19	$4,165,663,910	14 / 15
2026-07-26	$5.19	$4,165,663,910	14 / 15
2026-07-27	$5.19	$4,165,663,910	14 / 15
2026-07-28	$5.22	$4,130,983,771	10 / 11
2026-07-29	$5.19	$4,165,663,910	14 / 15
2026-07-30	$5.19	$4,163,731,820	15 / 16
2026-07-31	$5.19	$4,163,731,820	15 / 16
2026-08-01	$5.19	$4,163,731,820	15 / 16
2026-08-02	$5.19	$4,163,731,820	15 / 16
2026-08-03	$5.23	$4,131,317,076	11 / 12
2026-08-04	$5.19	$4,163,731,820	15 / 16
2026-08-05	$5.25	$4,194,791,550	15 / 16
2026-08-06	$5.19	$4,168,871,760	15 / 16
2026-08-07	$5.29	$4,166,821,887	11 / 12
2026-08-08	$5.25	$4,194,843,320	15 / 16
2026-08-09	$5.25	$4,194,843,320	15 / 16
2026-08-10	$5.29	$4,166,821,887	11 / 12
2026-08-11	$5.25	$4,201,155,820	15 / 16
2026-08-12	$5.25	$4,194,439,450	15 / 16
2026-08-13	$5.29	$4,166,821,887	11 / 12
2026-08-14	$5.29	$4,166,821,887	11 / 12
2026-08-15	$5.29	$4,166,821,887	11 / 12
2026-08-16	$5.29	$4,166,821,887	11 / 12
2026-08-17	$5.29	$4,166,821,887	11 / 12
2026-08-18	$5.29	$4,166,821,887	11 / 12
2026-08-19	$5.29	$4,166,821,887	11 / 12
2026-08-20	$5.27	$4,168,488,290	12 / 12
2026-08-21	$5.27	$4,168,488,290	12 / 12
2026-08-22	$5.27	$4,168,488,290	12 / 12
2026-08-23	$5.27	$4,168,491,804	12 / 12
2026-08-24	$5.27	$4,168,491,804	12 / 12
2026-08-25	$5.27	$4,168,527,448	12 / 12
2026-08-26	$5.27	$4,168,527,448	12 / 12
2026-08-27	$5.27	$4,168,527,448	12 / 12
2026-08-28	$5.27	$4,168,527,448	12 / 12
2026-08-29	$5.28	$4,177,241,991	12 / 12
2026-08-30	$5.28	$4,177,241,991	12 / 12
2026-08-31	$5.28	$4,177,241,991	12 / 12
2026-09-01	$5.28	$4,177,241,991	12 / 12
2026-09-02	$5.28	$4,177,241,991	12 / 12
2026-09-03	$5.28	$4,177,241,991	12 / 12
2026-09-04	$5.29	$4,169,789,367	12 / 13
2026-09-05	$5.29	$4,169,809,935	12 / 13
2026-09-06	$5.29	$4,169,809,935	12 / 13
2026-09-07	$5.29	$4,169,809,935	12 / 13
2026-09-08	$5.29	$4,169,809,935	12 / 13
2026-09-09	$5.29	$4,169,809,935	12 / 13
2026-09-10	$5.29	$4,169,809,935	12 / 13
2026-09-11	$5.29	$4,169,809,935	12 / 13
2026-09-12	$5.29	$4,169,809,935	12 / 13
2026-09-13	$5.29	$4,169,809,935	12 / 13
2026-09-14	$5.29	$4,169,809,935	12 / 13
2026-09-15	$5.29	$4,169,809,935	12 / 13
2026-09-16	$5.29	$4,169,809,935	12 / 13
2026-09-17	$5.29	$4,176,515,234	12 / 14
2026-09-18	$5.29	$4,176,515,234	12 / 14
2026-09-19	$5.29	$4,176,515,234	12 / 14
2026-09-20	$5.29	$4,176,513,681	12 / 14
2026-09-21	$5.29	$4,176,513,681	12 / 14
2026-09-22	$5.29	$4,176,515,234	12 / 14
2026-09-23	$5.29	$4,176,515,234	12 / 14
2026-09-24	$5.29	$4,176,515,234	12 / 14
2026-09-25	$5.28	$4,176,515,234	12 / 14
2026-09-26	$5.28	$4,176,515,234	12 / 14
2026-09-27	$5.28	$4,176,515,234	12 / 14
2026-09-28	$5.28	$4,176,515,234	12 / 14
2026-09-29	$5.28	$4,176,515,234	12 / 14
2026-09-30	$5.28	$4,176,515,234	12 / 14
2026-10-01	$5.25	$4,152,923,375	12 / 14
2026-10-02	$5.26	$4,152,925,346	12 / 14
2026-10-03	$5.25	$4,152,926,228	12 / 14
2026-10-04	$5.25	$4,152,926,228	12 / 14
2026-10-05	$5.25	$4,152,926,228	12 / 14
2026-10-06	$5.25	$4,139,443,875	12 / 14
2026-10-07	$5.24	$4,134,399,464	12 / 14
2026-10-08	$5.24	$4,134,399,464	12 / 14
2026-10-09	$5.24	$4,134,399,464	12 / 14
2026-10-10	$5.24	$4,134,399,464	12 / 14
2026-10-11	$5.24	$4,134,399,464	12 / 14
2026-10-12	$5.24	$4,134,399,464	12 / 14
2026-10-13	$5.24	$4,134,399,464	12 / 14
2026-10-14	$5.24	$4,134,379,661	12 / 14
2026-10-15	$5.24	$4,134,379,661	12 / 14
2026-10-16	$5.24	$4,134,379,661	12 / 14
2026-10-17	$5.24	$4,134,379,661	12 / 14
2026-10-18	$5.24	$4,134,379,661	12 / 14
2026-10-19	$5.24	$4,134,379,661	12 / 14
2026-10-20	$5.24	$4,134,379,661	12 / 14
2026-10-21	$5.24	$4,135,156,629	12 / 14
2026-10-22	$5.24	$4,135,156,629	12 / 14
2026-10-23	$5.24	$4,135,156,629	12 / 14
2026-10-24	$5.24	$4,135,156,629	12 / 14

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	10	5	1
2026-06-01	11	4	1
2026-07-01	12	3	1
2026-08-01	12	4	1
2026-09-01	14	4	1
2026-10-01	14	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 6 · prior Aug 14

$202.00 → $182.00-9.9%

OppenheimerOct 1

$210.00New observation · no comparable prior

Northland SecuritiesSep 30

$220.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$121.00$242.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow reaches at least $315 million in 2026Published status: Broken
Net income grows beyond $91.1 million quarterly run rateNet income: $89.014M
Operating income improves beyond $106.7 million quarterly run ratePublished status: Broken
Revenue grows to at least $3.75 billion in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-46.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

BWX Technologies outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-oriented industrial business with a multi-year thesis supported by recent revenue and earnings gains. The thesis is intact, and the signal recently improved from mildly favorable to favorable, though overall risk is elevated.

What's priced into BWX Technologies

Valuation is broadly aligned with the evidence, and the expectations gap is modestly negative, meaning expectations appear somewhat ahead of the model’s view. BWXT carries a premium versus peers, but the priced-in assessment labels that premium justified and overall fragility low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results show growth: second-quarter revenue rose 18% year over year, operating income rose 11%, and diluted earnings per share rose 14%. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance, and recent earnings reports were positive, but a prior deep miss makes guidance execution worth watching; the near-term miss risk is described as low.

What BWX Technologies hinges on

For the multi-year thesis, a key test is whether BWXT sustains growth and follows through on its raised guidance. Near term, guidance cuts after a recent increase could hurt management credibility, while continued strength or weakness among industrial bellwethers could reinforce or weaken the sector backdrop.