Reading BRZE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BRZE free→Reading BRZE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BRZE free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed because the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and compared with sector peers, it is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 123% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.73. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $22 BRZE trades at 53× p/e — 2.5× the 21× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $9.53 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $30–$35. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 128% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 30%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.62x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.15 → $0.15 (+1.2% / 30d). 9 raised, 7 cut, 20 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 8 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 34.4% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$255.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$679.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,637.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below its median, it signals a weakening trend in the sector. This could hurt Braze's performance as it is already losing money.
Confirms:Braze's revenue growth reported below the median for the sector.
Disproves:Braze's revenue growth stays above the median for the sector.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BRZE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (c) On May 25, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of the Company appointed Pankaj Malik, who currently serves as the Company’s Chief Accounting Officer, as the Company's Interim Chief Financial Officer, effective as of May 29, 2026. Mr. Malik will also continue to serve as the Company’s Chief Accounting Officer. Mr. Malik is 44 years old…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$30.00 – $35.00 (median $32.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-28
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BRZE Braze, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 29 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Braze has updated its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2027 to a range of $895M to $899M.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $884M-$889M in 2025-Q4 to $895M-$899M in 2026-Q1. The trajectory shows Braze is delivering on its growth expectations.
“Braze is updating guidance for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2027.”
“Braze is initiating guidance for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2027.”
Braze aims to achieve a non-GAAP operating income of $70M to $74M for fiscal year 2027.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Non-GAAP operating income guidance increased from $69M-$73M in 2025-Q4 to $70M-$74M in 2026-Q1. Braze is showing progress towards its profitability goals.
Braze is focused on improving cash flow from operating activities, reaching $28.1M in 2027-Q1.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Cash from operating activities improved from $6.9M in 2026-Q2 to $28.1M in 2027-Q1. Braze is delivering on its commitment to enhance cash flow.
and Exhibit 99.1 in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such fi…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 28, 2026, Braze, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Isabelle Winkles will resign as Chief Financial Officer of the Company, effective May 29, 2026 (the “Termination Date”). Thereafter, Ms. Winkles has agreed to provide advisory services to the Company as a consultant until August 17, 2026. On April 28, 2026, the Company and Ms. Winkles en…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 24, 2026, Braze, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On April 7, 2026, Braze, Inc. announced that Susan Wiseman intends to retire as the company's general counsel and secretary on or before June 30, 2026.
“Non-GAAP operating income $70.0 - 74.0 for fiscal year ending January 31, 2027.”
“Non-GAAP operating income $69.0 - 73.0 for fiscal year ending January 31, 2027.”
“Cash from operating activities improved to $28.1M.”
“Cash from operating activities was $19.4M.”
“Cash from operating activities was $20.9M.”
“Cash from operating activities was $6.9M.”