Reading BOF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BOF free→Reading BOF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BOF free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 439% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. If BOF cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $3.43. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $3.45, BOF's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 3× p/s (3.4× the 1× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $1.02 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 237% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.02x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$339.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$711.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,634.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can impact consumer demand. A strong report may boost confidence in BranchOut Food's sales outlook.
Confirms one read:Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows a growth rate above 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decline or growth below 0% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BOF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Convertible Note Amendment On May 14, 2026, BranchOut Food Inc. (the “Company”), and Kaufman Kapital LLC (“Kaufman”), entered into an amendment to the 12% Senior Secured Convertible Promissory Note of the Company in the original principal amount of up to $3,400,000, dated as of July 23, 2024 (the “Convertible Note”), pursuant to which a 9.99% beneficial ownership limitation provision was added to the Convertible Note. Under this provision, Kaufman m…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BOF BranchOut Food Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 10 of 100 | expensive | high |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | fair | moderate |
15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated volatile grew net income 42% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=368).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to improve gross margin to 25% by excluding certain factors.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company reported a gross profit of $400,660 on revenue of $2,606,795 in 2026-Q1, resulting in a gross margin of approximately 15.4%. This indicates limited progress towards the 25% target.
“The 2025 gross margin of ~16% was severely depressed; excluding factors, it would have been around 25%.”
The company anticipates continuing its rapid growth rate into 2026 and beyond.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue decreased from $4,033,935 in 2025-Q4 to $2,606,795 in 2026-Q1, indicating a decline rather than rapid growth. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the stated growth ambition.
“The company anticipates continuing its rapid growth rate into 2026 and beyond.”
The company is focused on managing its capital allocation, including new financial obligations.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has entered into several financial obligations, including a $1,500,000 loan and additional $750,000 borrowing. This indicates a focus on capital allocation, but the financial impact remains to be seen.
“Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement.”
Why it matters: Unemployment claims show how much money people can spend. More claims may mean less money for BranchOut Food.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims fall below 200,000, showing a strong job market.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims are over 300,000. This shows weakness in the economy.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive change in the company's performance. This would be important as the sector is currently maturing.
Confirms:Revenue growth speeds up again, reaching over 4% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays below 4% year over year or slows down.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 7, 2026, BranchOut Food Inc. (the “Company”) and Kaufman Kapital LLC (“Kaufman”) entered into a Warrant Exercise and Amendment to Note and Warrant Agreement (the “Agreement”), pursuant to which Kaufman exercised in full, for a cash payment to the Company of $750,000, a Warrant to purchase 500,000 shares of the Company’s common stock with an exercise price of $1.50 per share issued to Kaufman on July 15, 2024 (the “Warrant”). In addition, purs…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously reported, on January 28, 2026, BranchOut Food Inc. (the “Company”), borrowed $1,500,000 from Kaufman Kapital LLC (“Kaufman”), pursuant to a Senior Secured Promissory Note in the principal amount of $1,500,000 (the “Original Note”), issued by the Company to Kaufman. On April 17, 2026, the Company borrowed an additional $750,000 from Kaufman on the same terms provided for under the Original Note (the “Additional Loan”), and in connection…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under