Reading BLD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BLD free→Reading BLD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BLD free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, BLD is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 44% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $416.18. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $416 the market pays 22× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 22× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $291 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $437–$485. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 43% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.52x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $4.76 → $4.80 (+0.7% / 30d). 4 raised, 4 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$186.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$362.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,912.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition will help TopBuild's market position. It will also boost revenue for growth.
Confirms:The Comfort Pro acquisition closes. It adds $6 million in yearly revenue.
Disproves:The acquisition fails to close or is delayed. This suggests there may be integration problems.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Announce and execute merger with QXO
Amending bond terms supports merger execution.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 11, 2026, TopBuild Corp., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association, as trustee (the “Trustee”), entered into (i) the Third Supplemental Indenture (the “2032 Notes Supplemental Indenture”) to the Indenture, dated as of October 14, 2021 (as amended, supplemented or otherwise modified, the “2032 Notes Indenture”), among the Company, the guarantors party thereto and the Trustee, governing the Co…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$437.00 – $485.00 (median $440.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-06
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Homebuilding.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BLD TopBuild Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
DHI D. R. Horton | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PHM PulteGroup | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
LEN Lennar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
NVR NVR, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | fair | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=486).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
TopBuild is focused on completing the merger with QXO to enhance growth opportunities.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The merger with QXO is a strategic priority to enhance growth opportunities. The financials show a revenue of $1.45 billion in 2026-Q1, up from $1.23 billion in 2025-Q1, indicating growth driven by acquisitions. The trajectory is delivering on the stated priority.
“CEO: 'We are excited about our future in joining QXO, as was announced on April 19.'”
“Acquisitions continue to be top priority for deploying capital.”
TopBuild aims to enhance operational efficiency and deliver compounding shareholder returns.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.23 billion in 2025-Q1 to $1.45 billion in 2026-Q1, reflecting operational improvements and shareholder value focus. The trajectory is delivering on the priority of operational excellence and shareholder returns.
“CEO: 'Our first quarter performance was in line with our expectations as we continue our focus on delivering compounding shareholder returns.'”
TopBuild prioritizes mergers and acquisitions to drive growth and diversify market exposure.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Completed four acquisitions adding more than $80 million in annual revenue in 2026, indicating a focus on M&A for growth. The trajectory shows active pursuit of growth through acquisitions.
TopBuild plans to redeem its $400 million Senior Notes to optimize its capital structure.
TopBuild is managing a leadership transition with the retirement of its Chief Growth Officer.
Advances: Redeem $400M Senior Notes
Successful tender indicates strong debt management.
Advances: Redeem $400M Senior Notes
Tender offers show commitment to debt redemption.
Advances: Announce and execute merger with QXO
Loan sale supports financing for merger.
Other Events. On June 4, 2026, TopBuild Corp. (“TopBuild”) and QXO, Inc. (“QXO”) issued a joint press release (the “Joint Press Release”) announcing that the deadline for TopBuild stockholders of record to elect the form of consideration that they wish to receive in connection with the acquisition of TopBuild by QXO is 5:00 p.m., Eastern Time on June 29, 2026. A copy of the Joint Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference. Cautionary Stateme…
Other Events. On May 29, 2026, TopBuild Corp., a Delaware corporation (“TopBuild”), elected to exercise its optional redemption right to redeem the entire outstanding $400 million aggregate principal amount of its 3.625% Senior Notes due 2029 (the “Notes”), subject to the Approval Condition (as defined below), and instructed U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association (as successor to U.S. Bank National Association), as trustee under the indenture governing the Notes, to issue a conditional…
is “furnished” and not “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section. Such information shall not be incorporated by reference in another filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), except to the extent such other filing specifically incorporates such information by reference.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Merger Agreement On April 18, 2026, TopBuild Corp., a Delaware corporation (“ TopBuild ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) with QXO, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ QXO ”), Titanium MergerCo, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of QXO (“ Titanium Merger Sub ”), and Titanium MergerCo 2, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and wholly owned subsidiary of QXO (“ Forward Merger Sub ”). Th…
“CEO: 'Our teams demonstrated resilience, strength and an unwavering commitment to drive operational excellence and increase shareholder value.'”
“CEO: 'M&A continues to be a priority given our strong free cash flow and robust pipeline of acquisitions.'”
“Acquisitions continue to be top priority for deploying capital.”