Reading BKKT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BKKT free→Reading BKKT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BKKT free→NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Risk is high, and compared with sector peers, it is below typical for the sector. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and the market mood is heating. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.96. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Not enough valuation methods to set a 12-month read yet.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.51x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.07 → $0.07 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$395.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,231.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,457.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a weakening position in the tech sector. This could hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Bakkt's revenue growth falls below the sector median growth rate.
Disproves:Bakkt's revenue growth remains at or above the sector median growth rate.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BKKT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Conditions. On May 11, 2026, Bakkt Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding the Company’s results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amend…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BKKT Bakkt Holdings Inc/US | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 6 of 100 | — | high |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
30 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Finalize and integrate the acquisition of Distributed Technologies Research Global Ltd.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The acquisition of DTR was completed on April 30, 2026. This strategic move is aimed at enhancing Bakkt's growth trajectory. However, financials show a net income decline from $7.71M in 2025-Q1 to -$11.65M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited immediate financial impact.
“On April 30, 2026, Bakkt completed its acquisition of DTR.”
“On January 11, 2026, Bakkt entered into a Share Purchase Agreement for DTR.”
“Bakkt announced the acquisition of DTR.”
Focus on improving earnings performance following recent earnings misses.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Bakkt reported an earnings miss for Q1 2026, with net income declining from $7.71M in 2025-Q1 to -$11.65M in 2026-Q1. This indicates a need for improved cost management and operational efficiency, with limited progress in reversing the earnings trend.
“Bakkt issued a press release regarding earnings miss for Q1 2026.”
Improve capital allocation through strategic securities issuance and debt management.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Bakkt has been active in capital allocation, issuing securities without registration and entering into a purchase agreement. Despite these efforts, operating income remains negative, declining from -$15.44M in 2025-Q1 to -$16.92M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in improving financial stability.
“Bakkt issued securities without registration under Section 4(a)(2).”
Immediately after the Closing, Mr. Naheta, our CEO, President and a member of the Board beneficially owns 11,127,563 shares of Class A Common Stock of the Company, approximately 22.3% of the Company’s securities.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets On April 30, 2026, Bakkt, Inc. (the “Company”), through an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary, Bividen Limited, a limited liability company incorporated in Cyprus (“Bividen”), completed its acquisition of Distributed Technologies Research Global Ltd., a private limited company incorporated in Cyprus (“DTR”). As previously disclosed, the Company and Bakkt Opco Holdings, LLC (“Opco”), a Delaware limited liability company and wholly owned subsidia…
of the Current Report on Form 8-K filed by the Company with the SEC on January 12, 2026 (the “Prior Report”) under the heading Purchase Agreement, the description of which is incorporated herein by reference and qualified in its entirety by reference to the full text of the Purchase Agreement, which was filed as Exhibit 10.1 to the Prior Report and is also incorporated herein by reference.
Regulation FD Disclosure On April 30, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the Closing of the acquisition of DTR. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K, which is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this paragraph, as well as Exhibit 99.1 referenced herein, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), nor shall they b…
“Bakkt announced earnings miss for the full year 2025.”
“Bakkt entered into a securities purchase agreement with an investor.”