AeroVironment (AVAV)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-29
$126.11-6.50%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put AVAV beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Aerospace & Defense is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Adjusted EBITDA accretive from Empirical Systems Aerospace acquisition: Direct metric needs a verified mapping.
View ThesisRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 26%, softest on share dilution.
View QualityManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 70% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskAeroVironment’s case rests on converting its contract wins and funded backlog into Fiscal Year 2027 revenue and profit. That growth engine matters because recent financial performance is weak and sector trends are a drag. Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 6% year over year, while non-GAAP EPS beat consensus. AVAV trades at 36× P/E versus a 29× peer median. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, despite the modest peer premium. The specific risk is that the thesis’s adjusted EBITDA pillar lacks verified metric mapping; next-quarter miss probability is 18%. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. AVAV is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 24 analysts currently covering AVAV (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 10 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for AVAV in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAV Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Aerospace & Defense — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put AVAV next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Fiscal Year 2027 Revenue and Profit Guidance
Strong backlog supports revenue and profit guidance.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $126.11
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $126.11.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Strength in autonomous systems supports growth objectives.
Advances: Expand manufacturing capacity and strengthen supply chain
Landmark contracts support manufacturing capacity expansion.
Earnings analysis provides insights into future performance.
Earnings call provides official guidance and strategic direction.
Advances: Scale Manufacturing and Supply Chain
Earnings call highlights scale-up aligns with manufacturing objectives.
Advances: Fiscal Year 2027 Revenue and Profit Guidance
Reiterating revenue guidance supports growth objectives.
Advances: Fiscal Year 2027 Revenue and Profit Guidance
Record revenue supports fiscal year 2027 growth guidance.
