NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-07-31
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Create your account →Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Aerospace & Defense is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 141% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 19%, softest on share dilution.
View QualityManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 67% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskAeroVironment's growth in defense contracts supports its valuation despite recent weak performance. Revenue from a $117 million Army drone contract enhances growth expectations. It trades at 45× P/E, above the 35× peer median. This premium reflects the need for sustained growth to justify its price. A specific risk is the 24% chance of a miss in the next quarter. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% below where it trades. Our read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-31. AVAV is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 21 analysts currently covering AVAV (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 11 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for AVAV in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-08-01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Aerospace & Defense — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Advances: Acquisition of Empirical Systems Aerospace
CEO's statement highlights strategic importance in defense sector.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-31. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $149.37
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $149.37.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Significant contract boosts growth outlook and validates product demand.
Major contract win enhances revenue potential and market position.
Advances: Acquisition of Empirical Systems Aerospace
Winning contracts supports growth and acquisition objectives.
Analyst upgrade may positively influence investor sentiment.
Advances: Acquisition of Empirical Systems Aerospace
MQ-31A designation enhances growth prospects for JUMP 20.
Securities class action could impact financial stability.
Advances: Fiscal Year 2026 Revenue Guidance
Doubling revenue aligns with growth objectives.
