Reading AVAV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVAV free→Reading AVAV? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AVAV free→NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, AVAV is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 48% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $171.95. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $172 the market pays 57× p/e — above the 38× p/e peer median but in line with its own 65× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $116 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $236–$330. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 48% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.78x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.71 → $0.73 (+2.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 84% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$299.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$664.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,145.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: New guidance will show how management sees growth chances in tough times.
Confirms one read:Management raises revenue guidance. This shows they are sure about growth.
Confirms the other:Management lowers revenue guidance. This shows they are worried about market conditions.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Scale Manufacturing and Supply Chain
Investment supports scaling manufacturing and supply chain objectives.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Chief Financial Officer Appointment On April 13, 2026, AeroVironment Inc. (the “Company”) announced the appointment of Sean Woodward as the Company’s Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective May 1, 2026. Mr. Woodward succeeds Kevin McDonnell, who previously announced his intent to retire from employment with the Company on Jul…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$236.00 – $330.00 (median $259.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-03-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AVAV AeroVironment | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Strengthen manufacturing capabilities in electric and unmanned aviation through the acquisition of ESAero.
Focus on scaling manufacturing and strengthening supply chain capabilities to meet rising demand.
Expect revenue of between $1.85 billion and $1.95 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show financial health and how well operations are doing.
Confirms one read:Earnings results show revenue growth and better margins than last quarter.
Confirms the other:Earnings results show falling revenue or bigger losses than before.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Chief Operating Officer Appointment On April 9, 2026, AeroVironment Inc. (the “Company”) announced the appointment of Robert Smith as the Company’s Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, effective April 13, 2026. Dr. Smith succeeds Brad Truesdell, who previously announced his intent to retire from employment with the Company upon the…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 12, 2026, Brad Truesdell, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of AeroVironment Inc. (the “Company”), notified the Company of his intention to retire from his employment with the Company effective upon the appointment of his successor. It is expected the Mr. Truesdell will continue in his role, serving as the Company’s princ…
above is incorporated herein by reference. Attached as Exhibit 99.2 hereto is a presentation containing additional information regarding the Company’s third quarter fiscal 2026 financial results for the period ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the presentation is also available on the investor relations section of the Company’s website at https://investor.avinc.com/events-and-presentations. The information contained on the Company’s website is not incorporated by reference into, and does no…
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. On March 16, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), AeroVironment, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), consummated its acquisition of Empirical Systems Aerospace, Inc., a California corporation (“ESAero”), pursuant to that certain Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated March 16, 2026 (the “Merger Agreement”), by and among the Company, ESAero, Eagle 3 Enterprises, Inc., a California corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of the Company (“Merger Sub”), and t…