AeroVironment (AVAV)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
$140.80-5.36%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Adjusted EBITDA accretive from Empirical Systems Aerospace acquisition: EBITDA margin -2.3% vs accretive target.
AeroVironment won a $500M U.S. Army contract. Revenue should reach about $2.17 billion in fiscal 2027. The acquisition of Empirical Systems Aerospace should add profit in the first year.
The company cut its guidance and faces legal risks. Profit estimates have fallen recently. Operational challenges may hurt growth and margins.
The price is about 3% above our fair value near $158. Analysts expect 14% revenue growth, but our model is more cautious than the Street.
Breaks if: Manufacturing and supply chain issues persist or worsen over next year
Strengthen and scale manufacturing and supply chain capabilities to support accelerated commercialization and meet rising global demand.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with some volatility. The current thesis state reflects uncertainty due to recent weak financial performance and elevated risk factors.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation, with a low expectations gap. However, the premium compared to peers suggests that investors may expect some recovery or improvement.
Fundamentals may show some improvement as management focuses on integrating recent acquisitions and scaling manufacturing. However, recent financial performance has been weak, and the company has a history of erratic earnings surprises.
The future performance of AVAV hinges on the management's ability to execute on their priorities and the broader industrial sector's performance. Key indicators will be the earnings results from sector bellwethers and any guidance changes from AVAV.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this view. The acquisition of Empirical Systems Aerospace also adds to the positive outlook. The defense contractors group has underperformed recently, which is a concern. However, the new contract for directed-energy systems may boost future revenue.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Acquisition is not accretive to adjusted EBITDA within 12 months
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $2.0 billion in fiscal 2027
In the next 1 to 3 years, AVAV's success will depend on execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.