AeroVironment (AVAV)

NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-23

$123.25+4.72%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge AeroVironment’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.51 → 4.45 EPS · FY ending Apr 30, 2028 · 14 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-11-01
Revenue	—	510.64M
EPS	—	0.418
Quarter ending 2027-01-31
Revenue	—	532.68M
EPS	—	0.774
Annual ending 2027-04-30
Revenue	—	2.21B
EPS	—	3.273
Annual ending 2028-04-30
Revenue	—	2.54B
EPS	—	4.454

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Scale manufacturing and supply chain to meet demand	A supporting condition in AeroVironment's published investment case. The stated target is Improved manufacturing scale and supply chain execution.	Improving	Manufacturing and supply chain issues persist or worsen over next year	Qualitative: $1.5B backlog supports scale-up Q1 FY27 earnings highlight LOCUST scale-up and second-half ramp; $1.5B funded backlog supports manufacturing expansion. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Adjusted EBITDA accretive from Empirical Systems Aerospace acquisition	The acquisition of Empirical Systems Aerospace should add profit in the first year.	Under Pressure	Acquisition is not accretive to adjusted EBITDA within 12 months	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The acquisition of ESAero for approximately $200 million was completed in 2026-Q1 and is expected to be accretive to adjusted EBITDA in the first year. Management has reiterated integration and leveraging ESAero's manufacturing capabilities, with revenue and backlog growth supporting progress. Trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue reaches about $2.17 billion in fiscal 2027	Revenue should reach about $2.17 billion in fiscal 2027.	Intact	Revenue falls below $2.0 billion in fiscal 2027	Revenue: $480.49M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.17B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 10, 2026480,490,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b3127f89-f208-4c81-beb0-14871c13fba2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$4.45

$4.53 → $4.45 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$2.54B

$2.53B → $2.54B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.53	$2,529,878,020	16 / 16
2026-07-25	$4.42	$2,526,711,770	16 / 16
2026-07-26	$4.42	$2,526,711,770	16 / 16
2026-07-27	$4.46	$2,519,994,723	11 / 12
2026-07-28	$4.42	$2,526,711,770	16 / 16
2026-07-29	$4.42	$2,526,711,770	16 / 16
2026-07-30	$4.42	$2,526,711,770	16 / 16
2026-07-31	$4.42	$2,526,711,770	16 / 16
2026-08-01	$4.42	$2,526,711,770	16 / 16
2026-08-02	$4.42	$2,526,711,770	16 / 16
2026-08-03	$4.42	$2,526,711,770	16 / 16
2026-08-04	$4.42	$2,526,711,770	16 / 16
2026-08-05	$4.42	$2,526,711,770	16 / 16
2026-08-06	$4.42	$2,526,711,770	16 / 16
2026-08-07	$4.46	$2,519,994,723	11 / 12
2026-08-08	$4.40	$2,527,236,770	15 / 16
2026-08-09	$4.40	$2,527,236,770	15 / 16
2026-08-10	$4.40	$2,527,236,770	15 / 16
2026-08-11	$4.40	$2,527,236,770	15 / 16
2026-08-12	$4.40	$2,527,236,770	15 / 16
2026-08-13	$4.40	$2,527,236,770	15 / 16
2026-08-14	$4.46	$2,519,994,723	11 / 12
2026-08-15	$4.46	$2,519,994,723	11 / 12
2026-08-16	$4.46	$2,519,994,723	11 / 12
2026-08-17	$4.46	$2,519,994,723	11 / 12
2026-08-18	$4.46	$2,519,994,723	11 / 12
2026-08-19	$4.46	$2,519,994,723	11 / 12
2026-08-20	$4.46	$2,519,994,723	11 / 12
2026-08-21	$4.46	$2,519,994,723	10 / 12
2026-08-22	$4.46	$2,519,994,723	10 / 12
2026-08-23	$4.46	$2,519,994,723	10 / 12
2026-08-24	$4.46	$2,519,994,723	10 / 12
2026-08-25	$4.46	$2,519,330,393	10 / 12
2026-08-26	$4.46	$2,519,330,393	10 / 12
2026-08-27	$4.46	$2,519,330,393	10 / 12
2026-08-28	$4.46	$2,519,330,393	10 / 12
2026-08-29	$4.46	$2,519,330,393	10 / 12
2026-08-30	$4.46	$2,519,330,393	10 / 12
2026-08-31	$4.46	$2,519,330,393	10 / 12
2026-09-01	$4.46	$2,519,330,393	10 / 12
2026-09-02	$4.46	$2,519,330,393	10 / 12
2026-09-03	$4.43	$2,519,328,243	10 / 12
2026-09-04	$4.42	$2,519,330,268	11 / 12
2026-09-05	$4.42	$2,519,330,268	11 / 12
2026-09-06	$4.42	$2,519,330,268	11 / 12
2026-09-07	$4.42	$2,519,330,268	11 / 12
2026-09-08	$4.42	$2,519,330,268	11 / 12
2026-09-09	$4.42	$2,519,330,268	11 / 12
2026-09-10	$4.44	$2,526,878,589	11 / 12
2026-09-11	$4.52	$2,535,501,714	11 / 12
2026-09-12	$4.52	$2,535,501,714	11 / 12
2026-09-13	$4.52	$2,535,501,714	11 / 12
2026-09-14	$4.52	$2,535,501,714	11 / 12
2026-09-15	$4.52	$2,535,501,714	11 / 12
2026-09-16	$4.54	$2,538,001,714	11 / 12
2026-09-17	$4.54	$2,538,001,714	11 / 12
2026-09-18	$4.54	$2,538,001,714	11 / 12
2026-09-19	$4.54	$2,538,001,714	11 / 12
2026-09-20	$4.53	$2,538,017,999	12 / 13
2026-09-21	$4.53	$2,538,017,999	12 / 13
2026-09-22	$4.51	$2,538,485,164	12 / 13
2026-09-23	$4.51	$2,538,485,164	12 / 13
2026-09-24	$4.51	$2,538,485,164	12 / 13
2026-09-25	$4.51	$2,538,485,164	12 / 14
2026-09-26	$4.51	$2,538,485,164	12 / 14
2026-09-27	$4.51	$2,538,485,164	12 / 14
2026-09-28	$4.51	$2,538,485,164	12 / 14
2026-09-29	$4.51	$2,538,485,164	12 / 14
2026-09-30	$4.51	$2,538,485,164	12 / 14
2026-10-01	$4.51	$2,538,485,164	12 / 14
2026-10-02	$4.51	$2,538,485,164	12 / 14
2026-10-03	$4.51	$2,538,485,164	12 / 14
2026-10-04	$4.51	$2,538,485,164	12 / 14
2026-10-05	$4.51	$2,538,485,164	12 / 14
2026-10-06	$4.51	$2,538,485,164	12 / 14
2026-10-07	$4.51	$2,538,045,367	13 / 14
2026-10-08	$4.51	$2,538,045,367	13 / 14
2026-10-09	$4.51	$2,538,045,367	13 / 14
2026-10-10	$4.51	$2,538,045,367	13 / 14
2026-10-11	$4.50	$2,538,045,367	13 / 14
2026-10-12	$4.50	$2,538,045,367	13 / 14
2026-10-13	$4.49	$2,538,045,367	13 / 14
2026-10-14	$4.49	$2,538,045,367	13 / 14
2026-10-15	$4.49	$2,538,045,367	13 / 14
2026-10-16	$4.49	$2,538,045,367	13 / 14
2026-10-17	$4.49	$2,538,045,367	13 / 14
2026-10-18	$4.46	$2,538,009,749	13 / 15
2026-10-19	$4.46	$2,538,009,749	13 / 15
2026-10-20	$4.46	$2,538,009,149	13 / 15
2026-10-21	$4.46	$2,538,010,354	13 / 15
2026-10-22	$4.46	$2,538,010,354	13 / 15
2026-10-23	$4.45	$2,539,771,766	14 / 15
2026-10-24	$4.45	$2,539,771,766	14 / 15

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	16	3
2026-06-01	16	3
2026-07-01	17	4
2026-08-01	17	3
2026-09-01	17	3
2026-10-01	19	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

OppenheimerOct 22

$205.00New observation · no comparable prior

MacquarieOct 16

$210.00New observation · no comparable prior

Redburn PartnersOct 6

$165.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$115.50$231.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA accretive from Empirical Systems Aerospace acquisitionPublished status: Under Pressure
Revenue reaches about $2.17 billion in fiscal 2027Revenue: $480.49M

Next proof point

Dec 8, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-70.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

AeroVironment outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a higher-risk growth and execution story, not a proven earnings compounder: the evidence describes AVAV as loss-making on an earnings-quality basis, with weak recent performance and elevated risk. The long-term thesis is on watch, though management’s manufacturing and supply-chain work, ESAero integration, and current guidance are reported as on track.

What's priced into AeroVironment

The valuation is 1.16 times the peer level, which points to a premium, while the expectations gap is negative and the valuation label is justified. The valuation measure recently fell from 62.6 to 52.3, but the evidence does not show that the premium has disappeared or spell out exactly what growth the market assumes.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue rose 6% year over year to $480.5 million in fiscal 2027’s first quarter, and funded backlog grew 25% to $1.5 billion. Management kept fiscal 2027 revenue and net income guidance steady, while capacity expansion and the ESAero acquisition remain on track; however, recent performance is weak versus the industry, and earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down.

What AeroVironment hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the key company-specific test is whether AVAV maintains guidance and turns its larger backlog and expanded manufacturing capability into results. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued execution would support the thesis. Broader sector conditions also matter, with industrial bellwethers’ results and guidance acting as signals for the sector backdrop.