Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN)
NYSEIndustrialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-29
$5.39-2.00%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put ASPN beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Building Products is in recovery. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Achieve positive adjusted EBITDA: Comparison needs review.
View ThesisRevenue is contracting — down about 49% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins, the balance sheet, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 68% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskASPN rests on a recovery in sales and adjusted EBITDA, though recent performance remains weak. Revenue fell 36% year over year in Q2 FY2026, and adjusted EPS was inline. At 2.3× sales, ASPN trades above the 1.9× peer median and its 2.0× historical multiple. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, despite that peer premium. The next-quarter miss probability is 37%, and adjusted EBITDA remains a pillar under pressure. Its comparison needs review, so that pressure is unverified. Peer multiples imply a price about 19% above where it trades; the thesis is on watch. This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. ASPN is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 6 analysts currently covering ASPN (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 3 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for ASPN in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASPN Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Building Products — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put ASPN next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $5.39
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $5.39.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.