Reading ASPN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ASPN free→Reading ASPN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ASPN free→NYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 18% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If ASPN cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.04 ASPN trades at 2× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $7.73 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 22% below a flat-multiple fair value, ahead of our forecast of about -43%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.55x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.21 → $-0.20 (+4.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 67% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -200.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$273.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$682.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,086.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth picks up, it could help Aspen Aerogels. The company needs a better market environment.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ASPN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 13, 2026, the Board of Directors of Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (the “Company”) designated Grant Thoele as the Company’s principal accounting officer, effective immediately, in addition to his current roles as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, Treasurer and principal financial officer. Mr. Thoele assumed the responsibilities of principal accou…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Building Products.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ASPN Aspen Aerogels, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | fair | high |
TT Trane Technologies | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
JCI Johnson Controls | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | low |
CARR Carrier Global | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
LII Lennox International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Aspen aims to limit its capital expenditures to less than $10 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Aspen has consistently guided that FY 2026 capital expenditures will be under $10 million. This reflects a strategic focus on capital discipline, though financials do not yet show the full-year impact.
“FY 2026 Capital Expenditures are expected to be less than $10 million.”
“FY 2026 Capital Expenditures are expected to be less than $10 million.”
Aspen aims to improve its adjusted EBITDA performance, targeting a positive outcome.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Aspen's adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 2026 is negative, ranging from $(4) million to $(10) million, indicating limited progress towards achieving positive adjusted EBITDA. The trajectory shows a need for further improvement.
“Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $(10) million and $(13) million.”
Aspen aims to increase its revenue, with Q2 2026 guidance set between $40 million and $48 million.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $37.884 million in 2026-Q1, with guidance for Q2 2026 set between $40 million and $48 million. This indicates a focus on growth, though actual revenue in Q1 was at the lower end of guidance.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Aspen Aerogels, Inc. announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2026, which ended March 31, 2026, and also discussed business developments. A copy of the press release containing such announcement is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information set forth in the press release, except for the information set forth under the headings “Financial Outlook” and “About Aspen Aerogels, Inc.,” together with the forward-loo…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, Aspen Aerogels, Inc. announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, which ended December 31, 2025, and also discussed business developments. A copy of the press release containing such announcement is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information set forth in the press release, except for the information set forth under the headings “Financial Outlook” and “About Aspen Aerogels, Inc.,” togeth…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 16, 2025, Aspen Aerogels, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ”), Aspen Aerogels Rhode Island, LLC, a Rhode Island limited liability company (“ Aspen RI ”), Aspen Aerogels Mexico Holdings, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“ Aspen Mexico ”) and Aspen Aerogels Georgia, LLC, a Georgia limited liability company (“ Aspen Georgia ” and, together with the Company, Aspen RI and Aspen Mexico, collectively, the “ Credit Parties ”…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 6, 2025, Aspen Aerogels, Inc. announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, which ended September 30, 2025, and also discussed business developments. A copy of the press release containing such announcement is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information set forth in the press release, except for the information set forth under the headings “2025 Financial Outlook” and “About Aspen Aerogels, Inc.,” together with t…
“Aspen’s updated full-year 2025 outlook is as follows: ... Adjusted EBITDA 7 – 15”
“Adjusted EBITDA 35 – 45”
“Q1 2026 revenue is expected to range between $35 million and $40 million.”
“Aspen’s updated full-year 2025 outlook is as follows: ... Updated FY 2025 Outlook Revenue 270 – 280”