Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN)
NYSEIndustrialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-09
$4.84-1.43%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve positive adjusted EBITDA: Q2 FY26 EPS -0.22 vs target >0; Q3 FY26 EPS guide +0.09.
Aspen aims to grow revenue to about $44 million in Q2 2026. The company plans to keep capital spending under $10 million in 2026. Aspen targets positive adjusted EBITDA soon. These steps could help it become profitable.
Aspen is still losing money and missed recent earnings. Revenue growth is uncertain. Capital spending and losses may continue, hurting the turnaround.
The price is about 28% below our fair value near $7. Analysts expect 15% revenue growth. Our view is cautious due to losses and soft guidance.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA remains negative through 2026
Focus on improving operating performance to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA improved from $(12.7) million in 2026-Q1 to $(6.6) million in 2026-Q2. Management expects positive adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2026 between $7 million and $15 million. The trajectory shows delivering improvement toward positive adjusted EBITDA.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story in a high-risk environment. ASPN is currently loss-making, but management is focused on ramping up manufacturing and improving revenue.
The market seems to have priced in a justified valuation with low fragility. However, there is a notable expectations gap, indicating that investors may be cautious about future performance.
Management has shown a commitment to increasing revenue and improving profitability, with recent revenue growth. However, the recent financial performance has been weak, and the company has a history of missing earnings expectations.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of the sector bellwether SDST and ASPN's ability to execute on its manufacturing restart. Any guidance cuts or misses from SDST could negatively impact ASPN.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Adjusted EBITDA was $(6.6) million in Q2 2026; Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA expected between $7 million and $15 million”
“Adjusted EBITDA was $(12.7) million in Q1 2026”
Breaks if: Capital expenditures exceed $10 million in 2026
Aspen aims to limit its capital expenditures to less than $10 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $40 million in Q2 2026
ASPN's path over the next few years will depend on its operational execution and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.