Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN)

Q: What's priced into Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) stock?

The valuation model labels expectations as justified, with no major fragility flags, but ASPN carries a premium versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting current fundamentals may not support all market expectations; confidence in that assessment is medium.

Q: What does the Aspen Aerogels, Inc. (ASPN) outlook hinge on?

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on completing the facility ramp, maintaining customer supply, and turning revenue growth into better profitability. Near-term sector support could persist if bellwether SDST continues to report strong results and raise guidance, while weaker SDST results could remove that support.

NYSEIndustrialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-10-23

$5.52+1.47%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Aspen Aerogels, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
EBITDA	$7M–$15Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	64.89M
EPS	—	-0.095
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	224.73M
EPS	—	-0.753
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	280.37M
EPS	—	-0.178

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve positive adjusted EBITDA	Aspen targets positive adjusted EBITDA soon.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDA remains negative through 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA improved from $(12.7) million in 2026-Q1 to $(6.6) million in 2026-Q2. Management expects positive adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2026 between $7 million and $15 million. The trajectory shows delivering improvement toward positive adjusted EBITDA. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Keep capital expenditures below $10 million in 2026	The company plans to keep capital spending under $10 million in 2026.	Intact	Capital expenditures exceed $10 million in 2026	Capital expenditures: $1.367M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: <=10 USD millions. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20261,367,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase revenue to $40-$48 million in Q2 2026	A primary condition in Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 40 to 48 USD millions.	Intact	Revenue falls below $40 million in Q2 2026	Revenue: $49.849M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 40 to 48 USD millions. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 7, 202649,849,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 408fd2fd-1cbd-411b-8481-c9f48ca5451b. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue increased 32% from $37.9 million in 2026-Q1 to $49.8 million in 2026-Q2. Management expects further growth with Q3 2026 revenue guidance of $65 to $80 million and improved adjusted EBITDA. The trajectory shows delivering revenue growth and improving profitability. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.28B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$283,907,000	3 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$283,907,000	3 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$283,907,000	3 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$283,907,000	3 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$283,907,000	3 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$283,907,000	3 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$283,907,000	3 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$283,907,000	3 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$283,907,000	3 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$283,907,000	3 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$283,907,000	3 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$283,907,000	3 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$283,907,000	3 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$285,821,000	3 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$285,821,000	3 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$285,821,000	3 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$283,691,400	3 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$283,691,400	3 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$283,691,400	3 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	1	1
2026-06-01	4	1	1
2026-07-01	4	1	1
2026-08-01	4	1	1
2026-09-01	4	1	1
2026-10-01	4	1	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

B.Riley FinancialOct 7

$9.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$4.95$9.90

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve positive adjusted EBITDAPublished status: Broken
Keep capital expenditures below $10 million in 2026Capital expenditures: $1.367M
Increase revenue to $40-$48 million in Q2 2026Revenue: $49.849M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-69.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Aspen Aerogels, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk recovery and growth story, not yet a proven durable compounder, because the business remains loss-making and recent performance has been weak. The thesis is on watch: management has made progress on revenue growth, but the facility restart is still incomplete.

What's priced into Aspen Aerogels, Inc.

The valuation model labels expectations as justified, with no major fragility flags, but ASPN carries a premium versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting current fundamentals may not support all market expectations; confidence in that assessment is medium.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue rose from $37.9 million in Q1 2026 to $49.8 million in Q2, and management guided to $65 million to $80 million of Q3 revenue with improved adjusted EBITDA. The staged East Providence restart is progressing but will take time to reach full capacity, while recent results have been weak and the company has missed in recent quarters. A guidance cut on the next call is a meaningful risk; capital spending discipline remains a stated priority.

What Aspen Aerogels, Inc. hinges on