Reading APPS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track APPS free→Reading APPS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track APPS free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, APPS is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 14% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.83. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.83 APPS trades at 18× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $11 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 14% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.11x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.09 → $0.14 (+55.6% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 0 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$304.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$703.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,260.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change market conditions and how investors feel about tech.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates. This causes a negative reaction in the market.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates the same or lowers them. This leads to a positive market reaction.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for APPS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filings. Th…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
APPS Digital Turbine, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | fair | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Digital Turbine aims to achieve revenue between $630 million and $650 million for fiscal year 2027.
Newly stated in 2026-Q4. The company has set a revenue target of $630 million to $650 million for fiscal year 2027. Current revenue for 2026-Q4 was $142.5 million, indicating a need for significant growth to meet this target.
“The Company expects revenue of between $630 million and $650 million for fiscal year 2027.”
Digital Turbine aims for non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA between $135 million and $145 million for fiscal year 2027.
Newly stated in 2026-Q4. The company aims for non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA between $135 million and $145 million for fiscal year 2027. This is a new target, and current financials do not provide a direct comparison to assess progress.
“Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of between $135 million and $145 million for fiscal year 2027.”
Digital Turbine is focused on improving its operating income, which has shown variability over recent quarters.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income improved from -$4.7 million in 2026-Q1 to $10.5 million in 2026-Q4, indicating progress in cost management. The trajectory shows improvement, but variability remains a concern.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it signals a weakening position in a growing sector.
Confirms:Revenue growth is below the sector median for two quarters in a row.
Disproves:Revenue growth stays above the sector median for two consecutive quarters.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amendment to Financing Agreement On April 20, 2026, Digital Turbine, Inc. (the “Company”) amended its Financing Agreement (the “Financing Amendment”) among the Company, certain other wholly owned subsidiaries of the Company, as guarantors, Blue Torch Finance LLC, as administrative agent and as collateral agent, and the lenders from time to time party thereto to, among other things, amend the liquidity covenant to reduce the liquidity requirement for…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filings. Th…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filings. Th…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers (b) On November 5, 2025, Mollie Spilman, a member of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Digital Turbine, Inc. (the “Company”), resigned from the Board effective November 10, 2025 in order to pursue opportunities as a senior executive officer of another company. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the…
“Operating income was $10.5 million in 2026-Q4.”
“Operating income was $21.7 million in 2026-Q3.”
“Operating income was $6.5 million in 2026-Q2.”
“Operating income was -$4.7 million in 2026-Q1.”