Reading APPN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is high. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, APPN is typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair. If APPN cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $22.80. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $23 APPN trades at 31× p/e, in line with its 28× p/e peer median. Our $23 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $21–$41. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 20%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 75.83x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.09 → $0.00 (-96.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 7 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 14% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 50.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$204.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$545.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,898.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
As of June 16, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from full to fair. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remains a tailwind. The management score is neutral, indicating no significant change in management quality.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a potential slowdown in the sector. This could affect Appian's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median rate.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median rate.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for APPN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026 , Appian Corporation (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, as well as information regarding a conference call to discuss these financial results and the Company's recent business highlights and financial outlook. The Company's press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information included in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$21.00 – $41.00 (median $24.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-05-15
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
APPN Appian Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | fair | high |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Appian aims to increase total revenue by 13% to 14% year-over-year for fiscal 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $166,426,000 in 2025-Q1 to $202,180,000 in 2026-Q1, showing a positive trajectory towards the 13% to 14% YoY growth target. Management is delivering on this growth priority.
“Total revenue is expected to be between $819.0 million and $831.0 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 13% to 14%.”
“Total revenue is expected to be between $801.0 million and $817.0 million...”
“Total revenue is expected to be between $711.0 million and $715.0 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 15% to 16%.”
Appian targets adjusted EBITDA between $97 million and $105 million for fiscal 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The guidance for adjusted EBITDA has increased from $49-$55 million in 2025-Q3 to $97-$105 million in 2026-Q1, indicating a strong focus on improving profitability. The trajectory is positive, aligning with management's stated priority.
“Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $97.0 million and $105.0 million.”
Appian has announced a $50 million share repurchase program effective May 2026 through February 2028.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The $50 million share repurchase program was announced in both 2025-Q4 and 2026-Q1, indicating a consistent capital allocation strategy. However, no specific repurchase activity has been reported yet, showing limited progress in execution.
“The Board of Directors has authorized a program to repurchase up to $50.0 million of Appian's common stock.”
Other Events. The Board of Directors has authorized a program to repurchase up to $50.0 million of Appian's common stock (the “Share Repurchase Program”), effective May 2026 through February 2028. The Share Repurchase Program does not obligate Appian to acquire any specific number of shares, and shares of common stock may be repurchased using a variety of methods, including privately negotiated and/or open market transactions, under plans complying with Rule 10b5-1 of the Exchange Act, as par…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 19, 2026 , Appian Corporation (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, as well as information regarding a conference call to discuss these financial results and the Company's recent business highlights and financial outlook. The Company's press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information included in
Other Events. The Board of Directors has authorized a program to repurchase up to $50.0 million of Appian's common stock (the “Share Repurchase Program”), effective February 2026 through February 2028. The Share Repurchase Program does not obligate Appian to acquire any specific number of shares, and shares of common stock may be repurchased using a variety of methods, including privately negotiated and/or open market transactions, under plans complying with Rule 10b5-1 of the Exchange Act, a…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 15, 2026, the Board of Directors appointed David Link to the Board, effective as of January 25, 2026, to serve until our annual meeting of stockholders to be held in 2026. Mr. Link was also appointed to serve on the Audit Committee, effective as of January 25, 2026. Mr. Link is the Co-Founder & CEO at ScienceLogic, a global leader in IT…
“Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $67.0 million and $70.0 million.”
“Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $49.0 million and $55.0 million.”
“The Board of Directors has authorized a program to repurchase up to $50.0 million of Appian's common stock.”