AAR CORP. (AIR)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-30
$100.26-4.08%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put AIR beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Aerospace & Defense is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 22% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 30%, softest on share dilution.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 38% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskAIR’s case rests on growing its aviation aftermarket platform through MRO acquisitions. Recent revenue growth was 24% year over year, following 23%, while reported profits remain weakly backed by cash. Its P/E is 19× versus a 29× peer median, and the price reflects less growth than our forecast. The risk is weak cash backing alongside unsteady execution during a major MRO deal. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 20%. Peer multiples imply a price about 19% above where it trades; our read remains intact, though provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. AIR is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 7 analysts currently covering AIR (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 3 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for AIR in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare AIR with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIR Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Aerospace & Defense — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put AIR next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Drive profitable growth through aviation aftermarket platform
Negative outlook may hinder profitable growth objectives.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $100.26
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $100.26.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Drive profitable growth through aviation aftermarket platform
Targets high EBITDA margins align with profitable growth objective.
Advances: Drive profitable growth through aviation aftermarket platform
Strong EPS indicates profitable growth in aviation aftermarket.
Advances: Integration and growth from strategic acquisitions
Acquisition aligns with strategic growth objectives.
Advances: Integration and growth from strategic acquisitions
Controlling stake enhances integration and growth potential.
Advances: Drive profitable growth through aviation aftermarket platform
Record sales and strategic expansions align with growth objectives.
Advances: Increase in gross profit
Aging fleet increases demand for MRO services.
Advances: Wind-down of Commercial Programs business
New service offering aligns with wind-down strategy.