AAR CORP. (AIR)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
$124.60-4.69%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
AAR is growing profit fast, with gross profit up $23M in Q3. Net income rose from a loss to $68M in Q3. The company is cutting its Commercial Programs business as planned. Demand for airplane repairs is rising due to older fleets.
If profit growth slows or net income drops, the turnaround could fail. The wind-down of Commercial Programs might hurt revenue more than expected.
The price is about 27% above our fair value near $109. Analysts expect 18% revenue growth, which matches our view.
Breaks if: wind-down progress stalls or reverses after mid-2026
AAR is winding down its Commercial Programs business as part of a strategic shift.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation, as AIR focuses on profitable growth through its aviation aftermarket platform and strategic acquisitions. The current thesis state is insufficient due to a lack of recent financial performance history.
The market appears to have priced in a level of fragility in AIR's earnings quality, as it is considered expensive compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, suggesting that investors are not overly optimistic but are aware of the potential risks.
Fundamentals are likely to show continued revenue growth and margin expansion, driven by management's focus on profitable segments and successful integration of acquisitions. However, there is a near-term risk of earnings misses, with a 20% probability of such an event.
The thesis hinges on AIR's ability to maintain guidance in upcoming earnings calls, as well as the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. Positive momentum in the Industrials sector could support AIR, while any negative guidance from these peers could impact its trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: MRO demand falls below prior year levels
Breaks if: gross profit falls below $131 million in any quarter after 2026-Q3
Breaks if: net income falls below $0 in any quarter after 2026-Q3
In the next 1 to 3 years, AIR's performance will depend on management execution and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.