NYSEMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-07-31
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Create your account →Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Materials: fringe margins under pressure (3q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Complete acquisition of South32's aluminum assets and realize synergies: metric not reported.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 6% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthMiddle-of-the-pack quality for its industry.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 49% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskAlcoa's growth depends on completing the acquisition of South32's aluminum assets. This deal supports its growth strategy. Revenue grew 24% year over year, but the last quarter missed expectations. Alcoa trades at 9.4× P/E, while the peer median is 19×. The price reflects less growth than forecasted. If Alcoa cuts guidance, it could face significant negative pressure. Peer multiples imply a price about 36% above where it trades. This read is provisional; the thesis is on watch due to recent earnings performance.
Trailing returns as of 2026-07-31. AA is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 15 analysts currently covering AA (as of Jul 2026).
Based on 6 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for AA in the last 4 months.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-08-01. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Materials (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Threatens: Maintain aluminum and alumina production and shipment guidance
Production outlook cut affects shipment guidance.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-07-31. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $45.26
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $45.26.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Complete acquisition of South32's bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets
Acquisition aligns with growth objectives and enhances asset base.
Threatens: Maintain aluminum and alumina production and shipment guidance
Production guidance cut threatens operational stability and revenue.
Threatens: Maintain aluminum and alumina production and shipment guidance
Lower alumina output may impact production guidance.
Threatens: Maintain aluminum and alumina production and shipment guidance
Cyclone impacts alumina output, affecting production guidance.
Advances: Complete acquisition of South32's bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets
Record margins and acquisition news support growth objectives.
Threatens: Maintain aluminum and alumina production and shipment guidance
Cuts guidance impacts production and shipment expectations.
Threatens: Maintain aluminum and alumina production and shipment guidance
Missed EPS and revenue suggest weaker performance than expected.
