Alcoa (AA)
NYSEMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-10-29
$39.19-1.75%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put AA beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Materials: fringe margins under pressure (0q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 11% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 44%, softest on share dilution.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 55% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskAA’s case rests on cheap earnings and acquisition-led growth, despite fragile cash backing and unsteady management. Revenue grew 24% year over year in Q2 FY2026; Q3 2026 earnings beat consensus. The stock trades at 6× P/E versus a 17× peer median and 11× its history. The price reflects modest expectations, below our growth view. Reported profits remain weakly backed by cash; our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 24%. Peer multiples imply a price about 37% above where it trades. Our read remains intact; this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. AA is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 15 analysts currently covering AA (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for AA in the last 4 months.
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Compare AA with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Materials (broad) — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put AA next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Q3 beat and data center site sale support execution and asset discipline, though the headline gives limited detail.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $39.19
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $39.19.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Maintain disciplined capital allocation and debt management
Massena East proceeds advance asset monetization and disciplined capital allocation.
Advances: Maintain aluminum and alumina production and shipment guidance
EPS beat and increased production support operating objectives, though revenue miss tempers the signal.
Advances: Maintain aluminum and alumina production and shipment guidance
Q3 earnings beat modestly supports performance objectives; the share-price reaction is not independently material.
Advances: Maintain aluminum and alumina production and shipment guidance
Higher quarterly profit and sales on increased production support operating objectives.
Advances: Complete acquisition of South32's bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets
Shareholder approval is crucial for acquisition completion.
Analyst sees acquisition upside aligning with growth objectives.
Acquisition notes pricing supports growth strategy.
