Reading XTIA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track XTIA free→Reading XTIA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track XTIA free→NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, XTIA trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 63% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because recent financials are weak and earnings quality is fragile. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.73. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.86 XTIA trades at 1× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $4.90 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 62% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 100%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.35x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
24 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.21 → $-0.22 (-4.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$377.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$895.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,976.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth speeds up, XTI Aerospace may gain a better market position.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth rises above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for XTIA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 14, 2026, XTI Aerospace, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Senior management’s prepared remarks are also furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.2. The Company will post these prepared remarks providing additional detail and context regarding the Company’s financial results and business update, following t…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
XTIA XTI Aerospace Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 14 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve a full year 2026 revenue of $160 million or greater.
Management aims to achieve breakeven cash flow in the third quarter of 2026.
Management targets a full year 2026 gross profit as a percentage of revenue of 19% to 21%.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 15, 2026, XTI Aerospace, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results. A copy of the press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Senior management’s prepared remarks are attached as Exhibit 99.2 to this report. The Company will post to its investor relations website, ir.xtiaerospace.com, an investor presentation and prepared remarks by 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Wedne…
Other Events. On March 11, 2026, XTI Drones, LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (the “Company”), filed a Certificate of Formation with the Secretary of State of Texas to form XTI Drones - Defense, LLC, a direct subsidiary of XTI Drones, LLC and an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company. The formation of XTI Drones - Defense, LLC is intended to support and further the Company’s publicly disclosed corporate strategy, which includes exploring opportunities in the Vert…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 11, 2026, Drone Nerds, LLC, a Florida limited liability company (“Drone Nerds”) and subsidiary of XTI Aerospace, Inc. (the “Company”), and Anzu Robotics, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and subsidiary of the Company (“Anzu”; Drone Nerds and Anzu, collectively, the “Borrowers”), entered into a Credit Agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with the other Loan Parties party thereto and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (the “Lender”). The “Lo…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Resignation of Soumya Das In connection with the planned disposition of the Inpixon Business, the Company and Soumya Das entered into a separation agreement and release (the “Separation Agreement and Release”), effective as of the approval of such agreement by the Company’s board of directors (the “Board”) at the Board’s meeting held on January 29,…