Reading WOLF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WOLF free→Reading WOLF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WOLF free→NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it has a capital-unfriendly stance. Peer multiples imply a price about 86% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from WOLF and the performance of sector bellwethers like NVDA and TSM. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $45.00. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $43 WOLF trades at 2× p/s, below its 12× p/s peer median. Our $304 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 84% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.19x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
20 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-2.64 → $-1.47 (+44.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$602.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,188.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,822.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Wolfspeed can improve its financial performance. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue decline year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WOLF yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference into any filings of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WOLF WOLFSPEED INC/DE | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | — | — | moderate |
AVGO Broadcom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MU Micron Technology | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management expects to generate revenue between $140 million and $160 million for fiscal Q4 2026.
Wolfspeed issued $379 million of 3.5% Convertible 1.5 Lien Senior Secured Notes due 2031.
Management aims to improve cash from operations, which showed a negative trend in recent quarters.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could hurt Wolfspeed's performance. It shows the sector's health.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth has been below its median for two months in a row.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median for two consecutive months.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Indenture and Notes On March 26, 2026, Wolfspeed, Inc. (the “Company”) issued $379,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 3.5% Convertible 1.5 Lien Senior Secured Notes due 2031 (the “Notes”) in a private placement (the “Notes Placement”). The Notes were issued pursuant to, and are governed by, an indenture (the “Indenture”), dated as of March 26, 2026, among the Company, Wolfspeed Texas LLC (“Wolfspeed Texas”), as subsidiary guarantor (in such c…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Equity Securities Offering Equity Purchase Agreement On March 19, 2026, Wolfspeed, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “Equity Purchase Agreement”) with certain investors (the “Equity Securities Investors”). The Purchase Agreement provides for the sale and issuance by the Company of an aggregate of: (i) 3,250,030 shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s common stock, par value $0.00125 per share (the “Common Stock”)…
In addition, as previously disclosed in the Company’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on March 19, 2026, the Company entered into a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “Securities Purchase Agreement”) with certain investors in connection with a private placement offering (such private placement, together with the Notes Placement, the “Private Placements”) of shares of Common Stock and pre-funded warrants to purchase Common Stock. On March 26, 2026, pursuant to the terms of the Securities Purc…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. To the extent required by