Reading WFRD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WFRD free→Reading WFRD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WFRD free→NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with WFRD trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 17% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $97.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $100 WFRD trades at 18× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $122 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 18% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.45x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated fragile grew net income 38% of the time over the next year (vs 44% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.94 → $0.92 (-2.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$123.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$374.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,034.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A bigger drop in revenue shows problems in operations and market demand.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue drops more than 3% compared to last year.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue goes up or down less than 3% compared to last year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WFRD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) The Board of Directors of Weatherford International plc (the “ Company ” or “ Weatherford-Ireland ”) previously adopted, subject to approval by the Company’s shareholders, the Weatherford International plc Fifth Amended and Restated 2019 Equity Incentive Plan (the “ Plan ”), to increase the number of the Company’s ordinary shares, nominal value…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WFRD Weatherford International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SLB Schlumberger | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BKR Baker Hughes | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
HAL Halliburton | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | moderate |
FTI TechnipFMC | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | full | moderate |
8 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Weatherford aims to increase its dividend per share as part of its capital allocation strategy.
Weatherford focuses on maintaining strong cash flow from operations to support its financial health.
Weatherford is committed to growing its net income as a key financial metric.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend would signal strong cash flow and management confidence.
Confirms:Management announces a dividend increase of at least 10% per share.
Disproves:Management decides to keep the dividend flat or reduce it.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is critical for Weatherford to support growth and dividends.
Confirms:Management says cash from operations is now over 50% of net income.
Disproves:Management says cash from operations is below 20% of net income.
Why it matters: Going above this number would show better profits. This is key for investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 net income reported above $108 million.
Disproves:Q2 net income reported below $108 million.
Why it matters: A dividend increase would show a promise to return money to shareholders.
Confirms:Announcement of dividend per share increase from $0.275.
Disproves:No increase in dividend per share from $0.275.
Why it matters: News on the merger could change Weatherford's growth and market position.
Confirms one read:There is news about the merger's finish and plans for integration.
Confirms the other:The merger may face delays or could be canceled.
Why it matters: A speed-up would show a good change in the energy sector. This affects Weatherford's outlook.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported above 6%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 6%.
Why it matters: Keeping guidance shows confidence in making cash, even with challenges.
Confirms:Management says the free cash flow guidance for the year stays the same.
Disproves:Management revises down adjusted free cash flow guidance for the year.
Why it matters: A drop below this level signals trouble in maintaining cash flow, which is key for dividends.
Confirms:Q2 cash from operations was less than $100 million.
Disproves:Q2 cash from operations remains above $100 million.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Weatherford is improving cash flow and net income.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows cash from operations is over $50 million.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows cash from operations below $20 million.
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. On May 31, 2026, Weatherford International plc (“Weatherford” or the “Company”) and Trinity Bell Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Weatherford (“Merger Sub”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Target”), pursuant to which, upon the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein, Merger Sub will merge with…
Weatherford will host a conference call on Wednesday, April 22, 2026, to discuss the Company’s results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The conference call will begin at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (7:30 a.m. Central Time). Listeners are encouraged to download the accompanying presentation slides which will be available in the investor relations section of the Company’s website. Listeners can participate in the conference call via a live webcast at https://www.weatherford.com/investor-r…
Other Events. On April 2, 2026, Weatherford International plc (“Weatherford” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its proposal to reorganize the Company’s corporate structure through a redomestication of the parent company from Ireland to the United States as a Texas corporation. The proposed redomestication is subject to a number of conditions, including but not limited to the approval by the Company’s shareholders, as well as the sanction of the High Court of Ireland. A copy…
Weatherford will host a conference call on Wednesday, February 4, 2026, to discuss the Company’s results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. The conference call will begin at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (7:30 a.m. Central Time). Listeners are encouraged to download the accompanying presentation slides which will be available in the investor relations section of the Company’s website. Listeners can participate in the conference call via a live webcast at https://www.weatherford.com/inve…