Reading LBRT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LBRT free→Reading LBRT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LBRT free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 62% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact the stock's trajectory. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $27.36. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $28 LBRT trades at 35× p/e — 1.6× the 21× p/e peer median, and above its own 12× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $17 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $29–$40. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 62% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.83x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated robust grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 35% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.08 → $0.07 (-16.0% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 62% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -0.2% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$154.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$577.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,528.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth exceeds 4%, it shows strong demand and operational success. This could boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 4% year-over-year.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue growth is 4% or lower year-over-year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LBRT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Supply Contracts for Power Generation Equipment On May 1, 2026, Liberty Advanced Equipment Technologies LLC (the “Purchaser”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Liberty Energy Inc. (the “Company”), entered into two supply contracts with Bergen Engines AS (“Bergen”) for the purchase of power generation equipment, including engines and certain balance of plant equipment, for the Company’s prospective data center and other distributed power projects (each,…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$29.00 – $40.00 (median $35.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LBRT Liberty Energy, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 48 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SLB Schlumberger | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 61 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BKR Baker Hughes | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
HAL Halliburton | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | moderate |
FTI TechnipFMC | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | full | moderate |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding the supply of power generation equipment through strategic acquisitions.
Aim to increase revenue through improved utilization and profitability.
Continue to maintain regular dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: Stable or rising dividends show good use of money and strong finances. This shows management cares about shareholders.
Confirms:Dividend per share remains at $0.09 or increases in the next quarter.
Disproves:Dividend per share decreases from $0.09.
Why it matters: If this offering is successful, it can help Liberty's finances and growth plans.
Confirms:The $450 million convertible notes offering is done and has good terms.
Disproves:If the offering fails or has bad terms, it will be a concern.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 22, 2026 , Liberty Energy Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. This information is not deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and is not incorporated by reference into any Securities Act of 1…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes Offering On March 30, 2026, Liberty Energy Inc. (the “ Company ”) completed its previously announced private offering of $475.0 million aggregate principal amount of its 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2032 (the “ Notes ”) to several investment banks acting as initial purchasers (collectively, the “ Initial Purchasers ”). On March 26, 2026, the Initial Purchasers exercised in full their option to purchase an additio…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under the heading “0.00% Convertible Senior Notes Offering” in
Unregistered Sale of Equity Securities. The information set forth under the heading “0.00% Convertible Senior Notes Offering” in