Liberty Energy, Inc. (LBRT)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$15.59+1.37%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Liberty Energy, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-71.2% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.15 → 0.04 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	1.17B
EPS	—	-0.021
Quarter ending 2027-03-31
Revenue	—	1.2B
EPS	—	-0.015
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	4.53B
EPS	—	0.216
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	4.88B
EPS	—	0.042

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain or increase dividend payments	A supporting condition in Liberty Energy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=$0.09 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.09 in next 4 quarters	Dividend per share: $0.09 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$0.09 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 22, 20260.09 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1a4e3fec-5d20-4dbb-b39d-0a6fb710b4bc. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Expand power generation equipment supply via acquisitions	It completed acquisitions to expand power equipment supply.	Intact	No further acquisitions or supply expansion in next 4 quarters	3 acquisitions in last 4 quarters vs 0 trip threshold Recent M&A events confirm continued acquisition of power generation equipment supply contracts. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth to at least 11% next year	Analysts expect 11% revenue growth next year.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 11% in FY27	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.04

$0.87 → $0.04 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$4.88B

$4.75B → $4.88B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.87	$4,754,489,810	6 / 11
2026-07-25	$0.87	$4,754,489,810	6 / 11
2026-07-26	$0.87	$4,754,489,810	6 / 11
2026-07-27	$0.33	$4,918,552,608	5 / 9
2026-07-28	$0.33	$4,918,552,608	5 / 9
2026-07-29	$0.33	$4,918,552,608	5 / 9
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$4,925,077,850	3 / 11
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$4,925,077,850	3 / 11
2026-08-01	$0.26	$4,925,055,650	5 / 9
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$4,925,077,850	4 / 11
2026-08-03	$0.34	$4,925,077,850	6 / 11
2026-08-04	$0.34	$4,925,077,850	6 / 11
2026-08-05	$0.34	$4,925,077,850	6 / 11
2026-08-06	$0.17	$4,925,055,650	5 / 9
2026-08-07	$0.17	$4,925,055,650	6 / 9
2026-08-08	$0.32	$4,979,679,850	6 / 11
2026-08-09	$0.17	$4,925,055,650	6 / 9
2026-08-10	$0.17	$4,925,055,650	6 / 9
2026-08-12	$0.17	$4,925,055,650	6 / 9
2026-08-13	$0.32	$4,979,679,850	6 / 11
2026-08-14	$0.17	$4,925,055,650	6 / 9
2026-08-15	$0.17	$4,925,055,650	6 / 9
2026-08-16	$0.17	$4,925,055,650	6 / 9
2026-08-17	$0.17	$4,925,055,650	6 / 9
2026-08-18	$0.17	$4,925,055,650	6 / 9
2026-08-19	$0.17	$4,925,055,650	6 / 9
2026-08-20	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	6 / 9
2026-08-21	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	6 / 9
2026-08-22	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	6 / 9
2026-08-23	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	6 / 9
2026-08-24	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	6 / 9
2026-08-25	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	6 / 9
2026-08-26	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	6 / 9
2026-08-27	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	6 / 9
2026-08-28	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	6 / 9
2026-08-29	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	6 / 9
2026-08-30	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	6 / 9
2026-08-31	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	6 / 9
2026-09-01	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	6 / 9
2026-09-02	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	6 / 9
2026-09-03	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	6 / 9
2026-09-04	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	5 / 8
2026-09-05	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	5 / 8
2026-09-06	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	5 / 8
2026-09-07	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	5 / 8
2026-09-08	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	5 / 8
2026-09-09	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	5 / 8
2026-09-10	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	5 / 8
2026-09-11	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	5 / 8
2026-09-12	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	5 / 8
2026-09-13	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	5 / 8
2026-09-14	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	5 / 8
2026-09-15	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	5 / 8
2026-09-16	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	6 / 9
2026-09-17	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	6 / 9
2026-09-18	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	6 / 9
2026-09-19	$0.17	$4,979,657,650	6 / 9
2026-09-20	$0.15	$4,970,205,306	5 / 9
2026-09-21	$0.15	$4,970,205,306	5 / 9
2026-09-22	$0.15	$4,970,205,306	5 / 9
2026-09-23	$0.15	$4,970,205,306	5 / 9
2026-09-24	$0.15	$4,970,205,306	5 / 9
2026-09-25	$0.15	$4,970,205,306	5 / 9
2026-09-26	$0.15	$4,970,205,306	5 / 9
2026-09-27	$0.15	$4,970,205,306	5 / 9
2026-09-28	$0.15	$4,970,205,306	5 / 9
2026-09-29	$0.15	$4,970,203,105	5 / 9
2026-09-30	$0.13	$4,923,936,179	5 / 9
2026-10-01	$0.10	$4,899,477,131	5 / 9
2026-10-02	$0.10	$4,899,477,131	5 / 9
2026-10-03	$0.10	$4,896,040,995	5 / 9
2026-10-04	$0.10	$4,896,040,995	6 / 9
2026-10-05	$0.10	$4,896,040,995	6 / 9
2026-10-06	$0.10	$4,896,040,995	6 / 9
2026-10-07	$0.10	$4,896,040,995	6 / 9
2026-10-08	$0.10	$4,896,040,995	6 / 9
2026-10-09	$0.10	$4,896,040,995	6 / 9
2026-10-10	$0.10	$4,896,040,995	6 / 9
2026-10-11	$0.10	$4,896,040,995	6 / 9
2026-10-12	$0.10	$4,896,040,995	6 / 9
2026-10-13	$0.10	$4,896,040,995	6 / 9
2026-10-14	$0.10	$4,896,040,995	6 / 9
2026-10-15	$0.06	$4,861,674,479	6 / 9
2026-10-16	$0.06	$4,861,674,479	5 / 9
2026-10-17	$0.06	$4,861,674,479	5 / 9
2026-10-18	$0.06	$4,861,591,145	5 / 9
2026-10-19	$0.06	$4,861,591,145	5 / 9
2026-10-20	$0.04	$4,846,991,145	5 / 9
2026-10-21	$0.04	$4,846,991,145	5 / 9
2026-10-22	$0.05	$4,846,491,145	6 / 9
2026-10-23	$0.03	$4,847,328,388	6 / 9
2026-10-24	$0.04	$4,884,921,687	7 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	8	5
2026-06-01	8	5
2026-07-01	8	5
2026-08-01	8	5
2026-09-01	9	5
2026-10-01	9	5

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 23 · prior Sep 30

$31.00 → $27.00-12.9%

Piper SandlerOct 23 · prior Oct 19

$29.00 → $27.00-6.9%

Morgan StanleyOct 14 · prior Jul 24

$32.00 → $28.00-12.5%

ScotiabankSep 29

$19.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysSep 28 · prior Apr 27

$29.00 → $27.00-6.9%

$0$17.60$35.20

0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain or increase dividend paymentsDividend per share: $0.09 per share
Revenue growth to at least 11% next yearPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-54.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Liberty Energy, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

LBRT is an energy-services business with growth initiatives in distributed power, data centers, and completion technology. Its long-term thesis has support from reported progress on these priorities, but the recent earnings miss and weaker quality and management scores make the current setup more uncertain.

What's priced into Liberty Energy, Inc.

LBRT trades at a 2.4-times premium to peers, which points to an expensive valuation. The evidence labels pricing as justified, with low fragility, but the negative expectations gap suggests the market’s assumptions may be demanding; confidence in that assessment is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results may remain uneven: LBRT reported an earnings miss on October 21, and the industry has a high miss rate and erratic earnings surprises. For the multi-year thesis, revenue growth, a 1.2 GW power-services agreement, and reported progress in fuel efficiency show execution, while the new dividend increase adds a concrete capital-return commitment.

What Liberty Energy, Inc. hinges on

The next call is a key near-term test: a guidance cut could weaken the outlook further. Over the multi-year view, continued delivery in power services and completion technology matters, while results and guidance from sector leaders SLB, BKR, and HAL may show whether the energy-sector tailwind is strengthening or fading.