Liberty Energy, Inc. (LBRT)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09

$22.06+3.08%

Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change

Standing thesis

The standing, falsifiable read: what has to stay true, and what would break it.

Cyclical

Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue growth to at least 11% next year: FY27 rev +8.7% vs 11% target.

The bull case

Liberty Energy grew revenue 4% year over year to $1.02 billion in Q1 2026. The company keeps increasing dividends, from $0.08 to $0.09 per share. It completed acquisitions to expand power equipment supply. Analysts expect 11% revenue growth next year.

The bear case

The stock is down 30% from its high and guidance is soft. Free cash flow yield is negative at -5%. The company faces sector headwinds and elevated risk. Earnings estimates have recently been revised down.

What's priced in

The price is about 1% below our fair value near $24, reflecting justified expectations for 11% revenue growth. Our fair value is 31% below the Street median, indicating the market prices in moderate growth but not the Street's optimism.

What has to stay true

Maintain or increase dividend paymentsIntact
Capital Allocationsupporting>=$0.09 per share · next 4 quarters (qualitative)
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.09 in next 4 quarters
Expand power generation equipment supply via acquisitionsIntact
Management ExecutionsupportingSustain acquisition-driven supply expansion · next 4 quarters (qualitative)
Breaks if: No further acquisitions or supply expansion in next 4 quarters
Revenue growth to at least 11% next yearBroken
Revenue Growthprimary>=11% YoY · FY27 (qualitative)
YoY revenue growth falls below 11% in FY27

Source: QuarterlyIQ research model· Written 2026-07-08· Health checked 2026-09-09· Version 1· Status: Broken· Reviewed when the evidence changes

This is not a price target or investment advice.

Current Outlook

Week of Sep 5, 2026

A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.

LBRT shows strong recent performance but faces elevated risks in a turbulent sector.

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder in the energy sector. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and a commitment to growth, though risks remain elevated.

What's priced into Liberty Energy, Inc. (LBRT)

The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, reflecting a justified stance given the company's recent performance. There is a low expectations gap, suggesting that the current valuation is cheap compared to peers.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to continue showing strength, particularly in revenue growth driven by operational execution and technology. However, there is a 25% probability of missing earnings expectations, which adds some near-term risk.

What Liberty Energy, Inc. (LBRT) hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for inflation to reaccelerate and the performance of sector bellwethers like SLB and BKR. Additionally, any cuts to guidance could negatively impact sentiment and estimates.

What changed in the latest read

What changed

The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.

Short-term · Daily

No material changes since the prior snapshot.

Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Additionally, the extension of the partnership with Tamboran Resources enhances potential revenue from power generation equipment supply. There are no new threats to the thesis at this time.

as of 2026-09-09

See upcoming information that could change the risk

Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.