Reading OII? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OII free→Reading OII? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OII free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening, as recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how major companies in the Energy sector perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $37.33. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $38 OII trades at 21× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $37 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $32–$39. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 1% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.00x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated fragile grew net income 38% of the time over the next year (vs 44% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.45 → $0.45 (+0.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$197.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$402.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,527.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
Valuation changed. The valuation label rose from "fair" to "full." Risk remained moderate. Earnings quality is fragile. The sector backdrop is a headwind.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If Oceaneering meets or beats this guidance, it shows good progress in its work.
Confirms:Q2 2026 EBITDA reported at $110 million or higher.
Disproves:In Q2 2026, EBITDA was less than $100 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OII yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless specifically identified in such filing…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$32.00 – $39.00 (median $34.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-07
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OII Oceaneering International, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | moderate |
SLB Schlumberger | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 65 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BKR Baker Hughes | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
HAL Halliburton | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | fair | moderate |
FTI TechnipFMC | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to drive revenue growth across its business segments.
Management is committed to enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Management aims to improve cash flow from operations to support strategic initiatives.
Why it matters: Changes in IMDS income will show how well Oceaneering is handling tough markets.
Confirms one read:IMDS operating income is reported to rise compared to last year.
Confirms the other:IMDS operating income is reported to fall compared to last year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow would show that Oceaneering is working more efficiently and is healthier.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations reported to be positive in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations reported to be negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A big rise in ADTech revenue would help Oceaneering grow in defense markets.
Confirms:ADTech revenue reported to increase by more than 30% year over year in Q2 2026.
Disproves:ADTech revenue reported to increase by less than 10% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better sector performance could mean a recovery in the energy market. This may help Oceaneering.
Confirms:Sector performance improves to a positive score in June. This shows a recovery.
Disproves:Sector performance goes down again. This adds more challenges for Oceaneering.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth signals that Oceaneering is improving its market position. This is key for future success.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 6% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows better cost management. This helps the company make more money.
Confirms:Operating income is better than last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income is worse than last quarter.
The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless specifically identified in such filing…
The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, unless specifically identified in such filing…