Reading AROC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AROC free→Reading AROC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AROC free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major Energy companies. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $36.29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $36 AROC trades at 19× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $41 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $40–$46. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 12% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 21%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated strong grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=979).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.13x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 33% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=789).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.49 → $0.50 (+3.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 16.9% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$135.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$304.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,686.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth in contract operations shows strong market demand.
Confirms:Contract operations revenue grows year over year by more than 10%.
Disproves:Contract operations revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AROC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 5, 2026, Archrock, Inc. (“Archrock”) issued a press release announcing its results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), an…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$40.00 – $46.00 (median $40.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AROC Archrock, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SLB Schlumberger | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BKR Baker Hughes | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
HAL Halliburton | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
FTI TechnipFMC | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=329).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth, particularly in large-horsepower and electric-motor-drive segments.
Continue efforts to enhance operating income through operational efficiencies.
Aim to increase cash from operations to support growth and capital allocation strategies.
Why it matters: A drop in dividend coverage may show financial strain. This can affect investor sentiment.
Confirms:Dividend coverage remains above 3.0x for the next quarter.
Disproves:Dividend coverage falls below 3.0x for the next quarter.
Why it matters: A smooth transition keeps investor confidence strong. It also helps with stability.
Confirms one read:Archrock announces a new CFO before the end of 2026.
Confirms the other:The search for a new CFO takes longer than expected, causing uncertainty.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On March 25, 2026, Douglas S. Aron, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Archrock, Inc. (the “Company”), notified the Company of his intention to retire from his position. Mr. Aron will continue to serve as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer to ensure an orderly transition until a successor Chief Financial Officer is n…
Other Events. On April 1, 2026, Archrock Partners, L.P., a wholly owned subsidiary of Archrock Inc., completed the previously announced redemption of all $800 million aggregate principal amount of its outstanding 6.25% senior notes due 2028. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. ARCHROCK, INC. Dated: April 1, 2026 By: /s/ Stephanie C. Hil…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers 2026 Short-Term Incentive Program On February 18, 2026, the compensation committee of the board of directors (the “Committee”) of Archrock, Inc. (the “Company” or “us”) adopted a short-term incentive program (the “2026 Incentive Program”) to provide the short-term cash incentive compensation element of our total direct compensation program for t…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 24, 2026, Archrock, Inc. (“Archrock”) issued a press release announcing its results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “…