Archrock, Inc. (AROC)

NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$29.12+2.57%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Archrock, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	387.4M
EPS	—	0.469
FY 2026 · Annual
Contract operations revenue	$1.33M–$1.34M	—
Revenue	—	1.52B
EPS	—	1.72
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.63B
EPS	—	2.05

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain disciplined debt management and capital returns	A supporting condition in Archrock, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Redeem high-cost debt and increase dividends.	Intact	Fails to redeem high-cost debt or cut dividends in FY26	Dividend increased & $800M 6.25% debt redeemed vs FY26 target News confirms dividend increase and contract wins; filings confirm redemption of $800M 6.25% senior notes due 2028. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management maintained disciplined capital allocation, including redeeming $800M senior notes in 2026-Q2 and issuing $800M new notes in 2026-Q1. Leverage ratio improved from 3.3x in 2025-Q2 to 2.6x in 2026-Q2. This shows delivery on debt management and capital discipline. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Positive adjusted free cash flow	Free cash flow turned positive to $91.9 million in Q1.	Intact	free cash flow falls below zero in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net cash from operating activities rose from $127.5M in 2025-Q2 to $160.8M in 2026-Q2, and adjusted free cash flow improved from negative $48.4M in 2025-Q1 to $91.9M in 2026-Q1. Management's emphasis on growing free cash flow aligns with these improvements, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Contract operations gross margin near 72%	Profit margin rose to 72% in contract operations.	Broken	gross margin falls below 70% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Contract operations adjusted gross margin percentage improved from 70% in 2025-Q2 to 71% in 2026-Q2, and operating income increased from $91.9M in 2025-Q1 to $97.7M in 2026-Q1. Management's focus on operational reliability and profitability is reflected in stable to improving margins and income, indicating delivery. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue growth of at least 6% YoY	A primary condition in Archrock, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY.	Improving	YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY26	Revenue growth: -3.11% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 5, 2026-3.109471 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ef846931-0c08-4fd0-ab40-cb97e4f32c81. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Contract operations revenue grew from $318.3M in 2025-Q2 to $329.3M in 2026-Q2 (+3%), with total operating horsepower slightly declining from 4.7M to 4.5M but utilization remaining high. Management emphasizes strong utilization and profitability, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$1.66B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,657,687,470	4 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,657,687,470	4 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,657,687,470	4 / 5
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,657,687,470	4 / 5
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,657,687,470	4 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$1,657,687,470	4 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,657,687,470	4 / 5
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,657,687,470	4 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,657,687,470	4 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,657,687,470	4 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,657,687,470	4 / 5
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,657,687,470	4 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,657,687,470	4 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,656,948,070	4 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,656,948,070	4 / 5
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,656,948,070	4 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	$1,638,548,070	4 / 5
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,638,548,070	4 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,638,548,070	4 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	0	0
2026-06-01	8	0	0
2026-07-01	8	0	0
2026-08-01	7	0	0
2026-09-01	7	0	0
2026-10-01	7	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Positive adjusted free cash flowDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Contract operations gross margin near 72%Published status: Broken
Revenue growth of at least 6% YoYRevenue growth: -3.11%

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-32.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Archrock, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

AROC is an energy-services business with a multi-year view tied to operating performance and the energy-sector backdrop. The thesis is intact this month, though confidence is medium and recent earnings misses make the near-term picture less settled.

What's priced into Archrock, Inc.

The evidence describes AROC as cheap versus peers, while the model has low confidence and shows a modest negative expectations gap. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility; it points to sector turbulence rather than a broader combination of expensive valuation and weak fundamentals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent financial performance has been strong relative to the industry, and management priorities appear on track: contract revenue and margins improved, while operating cash flow and adjusted free cash flow rose. However, AROC recently missed earnings and has a run of consecutive misses, so the next results and any guidance change are important risks.

What Archrock, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year view depends on continued high utilization, profitable operations, and cash generation despite slightly lower operating horsepower. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strength or weakness among sector bellwethers SLB, BKR, and HAL could also reinforce or weaken the energy-sector tailwind.