Reading TDW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TDW free→Reading TDW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TDW free→NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with TDW trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $74.28. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $74 the market pays 28× p/e — above the 21× p/e peer median but in line with its own 28× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $74 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 0% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.07x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Energy names rated fragile grew net income 38% of the time over the next year (vs 44% for the rest of the cohort, n=602).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.77 → $0.48 (-37.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$168.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$488.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,516.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from full to fair. Risk fell, indicating a decrease in overall risk. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, suggesting ongoing challenges in the industry environment. The earnings quality is noted as fragile, reflecting potential weaknesses in financial performance.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Closing this deal will grow Tidewater's fleet. It will also strengthen its presence in Brazil.
Confirms:The acquisition closes by the end of Q2 2026 as planned.
Disproves:The acquisition is delayed beyond Q2 2026 or fails to close.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TDW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. In accordance with the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Tidewater Inc. (the “Company”) notes that certain statements set forth in this Current Report on Form 8-K provide contain certain forward-looking statements which reflect our current view with respect to future events and future financial performance. Forward-looking statements are all statements other than statements of historical fact. All suc…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TDW Tidewater, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SLB Schlumberger | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BKR Baker Hughes | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | full | moderate |
HAL Halliburton | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | fair | moderate |
FTI TechnipFMC | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | full | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Energy names rated stable grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 45% for the rest of the cohort, n=249).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maintain the revenue guidance for 2026, reflecting confidence in business momentum and the Wilson Sons Ultratug acquisition.
Continue to emphasize operational excellence to improve vessel uptime and efficiency.
Finalize the acquisition of Wilson Sons Ultratug to enhance market presence in Brazil.
Management emphasizes improving operational efficiency to enhance profitability.
Management aims to enhance cash flow from operations to support business activities.
Why it matters: A rise in sector revenue growth could help Tidewater. It may improve market conditions.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up back toward its highs.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains stagnant or declines.
Why it matters: Higher day rates show stronger demand. This can increase Tidewater's revenue and profits.
Confirms:Average day rates in the North Sea rise above $22,500 per day.
Disproves:Average day rates in the North Sea fall below $22,000 per day.
Why it matters: Stable costs can help profits. This shows good management of costs from conflicts.
Confirms:Operating costs in the Middle East decrease to pre-conflict levels.
Disproves:Operating costs in the Middle East stay high or go up more.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue guidance shows confidence in how the company is doing. It also reflects market conditions.
Confirms:Management confirms revenue guidance of $1.43 to $1.48 billion for 2026.
Disproves:Management lowers revenue guidance from the current range.
Why it matters: Higher costs can hurt profits and cash flow, affecting overall results.
Confirms:Operating costs go up a lot because of the conflict, hurting margins.
Disproves:Operating costs stay the same or go down, showing better cost control.
Why it matters: More net income shows better financial performance. This is important for investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 net income increases from $6.14M.
Disproves:Q2 net income decreases further.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Resignation of Darron M. Anderson On March 17, 2026, Darron M. Anderson notified the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of Tidewater Inc. (the “ Company ”) of his intent to not stand for reelection as a Director of the Board at the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “ 2026 Annual Meeting ”). Mr. Anderson’s decision not to stand for…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. In accordance with the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Tidewater Inc. (the “Company”) notes that certain statements set forth in this Current Report on Form 8-K provide contain certain forward-looking statements which reflect our current view with respect to future events and future financial performance. Forward-looking statements are all statements other than statements of historical fact. All suc…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 22, 2026, Tidewater Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ”), entered into a Sale and Purchase Agreement (the “ Sale and Purchase Agreement ” and, together with the other related documents, the “ Transaction Documents ”) between Wilson Sons S.A., Ultranav International II, S.A. and Remolcadores Ultratug Limitada (collectively, the “ Sellers ”), Wilson, Sons Ultratug Participações S.A. and Atlantic Offshore Services S.A. (collective…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On February 22, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that the Company had entered into a definitive agreement in connection with the Transaction. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report and is incorporated herein by reference as if fully set forth under this item. On February 22, 2026, the Company provided supplemental information regarding the Transaction in an investor presentation posted on its website. A copy…